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"Top 5 global hybrid markets" based on vehicle registrations CYTD March 2008.

and "Top 5 US hybrid markets" based on vehicle registrations CYTD March 2008.

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May hybrid sales were a mystery. Gas prices soared, so you would expect the most fuel-efficient vehicles to be selling at record numbers. Instead, May 2008 hybrid sales fell by nearly 25 percent compared to last year. Didn’t Toyota and the other hybrid makers see that oil broke past $100 per barrel on the first business day of the year? Didn’t they expect gas prices to spike at the beginning of driving season? Aren’t they doing scenario planning to prepare for golden opportunities like $4 gas? Isn’t Toyota trying to reach global sales of 1 million hybrids per year, as a way to reach economies of scale and lower the hybrid premium?

The only reasonable answer to these questions is: Yeah, but Toyota prefers to be very cautious. The company would rather neglect a short-term opportunity to pump up hybrid sales—in favor of slow and steady growth according to well-established plans. The result? Prius sales were down 38 percent compared to last year and Camry Hybrid sales dropped by 13 percent. Bear in mind that last year at this time, gas prices were relatively low, and industry pundits were declaring the death of hybrids as Toyota put consumer incentives on hybrids for the first time.

Honda, Ford, and General Motors were also locked into a pattern of limited availability. High oil and gas prices didn’t budge their lackluster commitment to hybrids. The general malaise in the car market didn’t help. Year-to-year sales of all vehicles were down 11 percent as fewer buyers visit showrooms in tough economic times.

Although the carmakers are unable to capitalize on this year’s hybrid fever, they used the opportunity to announce new future hybrids in the works. Honda’s global compact hybrid is due in 2009. The redesigned Prius is also expected in 2009, with two new hybrids also in the works. And all varieties of gas-electric, plug-in hybrid, diesel, and all-electric models are promised in 2010 and beyond. This will further stimulate the saliva glands of consumer thirsty for groundbreaking fuel-efficient options during the current oil shock.

In the meanwhile, where will consumers go to satisfy their appetites? For those who can’t wait and those on a tight budget, the answer is small conventional cars. In May, the Honda Civic beat out the F-150 pickup truck to become the top-selling vehicle in America. Small cars will remain hot throughout the year. And for those with patience, get to the back of the hybrid waiting list and expected to wait for several months.

US Sales

Our information is based on hybrid sales as reported by the manufacturers. For each model, this month’s sales are shown compared to sales in the previous month and at the same time last year. We also examine hybrid market share by model and manufacturer. The historical sales graph for top-selling hybrid models shows estimated 2008 volumes based on sales-to-date.

Hybrids sold in the U.S. (May 2008): 35,661

Regional Data