The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates fuel prices could drop as low as $2.29 per gallon for gasoline and $2.87 for diesel.

The department released its predictions this month in its annual Short-Term Energy Outlook with analysis for 2015 and 2016.

EIA gas price predictions

“U.S. regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $3.36 per gallon in 2014, [will] average $2.43 per gallon in 2015 and $2.63 per gallon in 2016,” said the EIA.

“The average household is expected to spend $675 less for gasoline in 2015 compared with last year because of lower prices.”

For 2015, the EIA estimated that prices will peak at $2.68 per gallon in May, before going back down again.

“Rising crude oil prices and a series of refinery outages in California have pushed gasoline prices higher in the past month,” said the EIA, adding that gasoline prices will “decline as refineries in California resolve outages and refineries in the rest of the country increase production of gasoline following the spring maintenance season.”

EIA diesel price predictions

In comparison to last year, diesel fuel will also be cheaper in 2015 and 2016.

“The diesel fuel retail price, which averaged $3.83 per gallon in 2014, is projected to fall to an average of $2.88 per gallon in 2015 and then rise to $3.12 per gallon in 2016,” predicted the EIA.

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Renewable Energy and Carbon Emissions Forecast

Of the renewable energy sources used to create electricity and heat, the EIA is expecting the solar capacity of utility companies to increase the most.

“Utility-scale solar capacity will increase by 84 percent between the end of 2014 and the end of 2016, with about half of this new capacity being built in California. Other leading states include North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, and Utah, which, combined with California, account for about 90 percent of the projected utility-scale capacity additions for 2015 and 2016,” the EIA said.

EIA renewable energy predictions

Wind capacity will also increase by 13 percent this year and 11 percent next year, outpacing the 8.1 percent growth measured in 2014. The EIA noted that even though upcoming wind installations aren’t as numerous as solar installations, more energy will be created by wind than by solar.

“Because wind is starting from a much larger base than solar, even though the growth rate is lower, the absolute increase in wind capacity is more than twice that of solar: 17 gigawatts of wind compared with 8 gigawatts of utility-scale solar between 2014 and 2016.”

Carbon dioxide emissions that are energy-related grew last year by 1 percent, but will most likely remain flat for the next two years, said the EIA.


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