Oil company BP expects 320 million EVs by 2040, but that oil demand will stay flat when it comes to transportation.

BP’s calls its Energy Outlook 2018 the company’s look at the global energy transition out to 2040. It’s the energy company’s look at what economic, social, and technological factors it expects to impact energy consumption, and how it feels those factors will impact. While it covers energy used by industry, in buildings, and oil used to make other goods, it has a big look at the transportation sector.

While a look more than 20 years into the future of cars is not an easy task, BP expects big moves in EVs. From a negligible share of the auto market today to 320 million vehicles on the road by 2040, BP expects the total number of passenger cars to grow from just over 1 billion cars now to around 2 billion by 2040. That puts EVs and plug-in hybrids at around 16 percent of the total number of cars on the road by that year.

BP also looked at the numbers by the amount driven, not just by sales. The projection expects road transport to climb from around 14 billion miles driver per year now to around 28 trillion per year by 2040. While the percentage of those miles driven electrically today is barely a sliver on the chart, BP expects that 30 percent of those miles will be EV-powered by 2040. Double the number expected from the electric share of the mix. That’s because the scenario expects that EVs and autonomous EVs will be used more in shared mobility services. Autonomous taxis, ride-hailing, and shared-use vehicles. There will be more gas cars, but electrics will do more miles.

BP expects that increased EV adoption will lead to a slowdown in the efficiency gains from ICE vehicles. That’s because there is less incentive for automakers to pursue that tech if EVs are becoming dominant. It still expects the efficiency of the global car fleet to increase by two to three percent per year, faster than it has in the last 15 years. That’s due to tightening government regulations around the world. It expects that a new ICE car in the EU will be 70 percent more efficient in 2040 than one from 2000, consuming just 3 L/100 km, or around 78 mpg. The increases in electrification and efficiency mean that BP expects the demand for liquid fuels for cars to drop slightly between 2016 and 2040. From 18.7 million barrels per day to 18.6. The Outlook also examines a scenario where ICE cars are banned from 2040, with progressive bans between 2030 and 2035. In that scenario, BP projects that demand would lower to just 10 million barrels per day. Even in that scenario, it expects that the total CO2 emissions from energy would drop only slightly compared with no ban, still up seven percent from today.

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This new Outlook marks a big increase in the EV forecast from just last year. In the 2017 report, BP expected 50 million electrics by 2030 and 100 by 2035. This year’s doubles those numbers, to 100 million by 2030 and 200 by 2035. That’s well above previously released forecasts from ExxonMobil for 100 million by 2040, but below a prediction from Bloomberg New Energy Finance of 530 million by the same year.

The new forecast shows that even oil companies expect EVs to gain significant share, although not overnight. They’re planning for and adapting to that, and to a new energy world.