This could be true if projections by LMC Automotive, a strategic partner of J.D. Power come to pass.

According to the forecast, 36 percent of an estimated 110 million passenger vehicles sold by then will be powered by something other than a pure gasoline engine.

Top on the list will be HEVs – gas-electric Hybrid Electric Vehicles – at 17.5 percent of the mix.

Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) like the Chevy Volt are estimated to round out 5 percent of the total, and alas, all-electric cars like the Nissan Leaf are estimated to be 2.5 percent.

Does that mean Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn who’s estimated it at around 10 percent by 2020 and efforts now underway by maverick marketer Tesla Motors will fizzle some time between now and then?

Actually, no one knows, but this is what the latest educated guess pegs, and while it’s at it, LMC Automotive says worldwide diesels will comprise 10 percent and flex fuel vehicles which run on E85, or blends of ethanol mixtures will make up 6 percent.

So that accounts for around 36 percent, a little more than one-third of the passenger vehicles in 2025.

As for the 64 percent of remaining passenger vehicles sold in 2025 powered by gasoline, these too are expected to feel a squeeze. It’s projected that V8s – now still enjoying a heyday and presently outnumbering hybrids by number of units available and by sales volume – will be down to just 10 percent, said LMC Automotive.

More than half of the gas engines will be four-cylinders and conventional gas engines will also be utilizing all manner of efficiency aids including turbo-charging, direct injection, stop/start systems, and 8-, 9-, and 10-speed transmissions.

J.D. Powers via AutoGuide

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Sandwiched between those classic American pony cars? The Toyota Prius.

In the interest of full disclosure, editors at Autoweek.com, admit that the Prius doesn’t get their blood pumping. Yet, as auto enthusiasts covering the full spectrum of the four-wheeled-world, the site’s staffers can’t deny the staying power of Toyota’s market-leading hybrid car.

Without postulating why the Prius rated so high in a publication that values performance facets of cars as much as practicality and comfort, the editors simply let the search results chips fall.

“All assumptions aside, the numbers don’t lie,” wrote Sherrice Gilsbach of Autoweek.com.

Reading (electronic) tea leaves

What does the number two out of 12 position say about the Prius?

There’s no end to the number of ways we could extract meaning from AW’s search results, and what they say about the Web site’s readership, or those merely doing informational searches on the site. To say that the influences of creeping numbers at the pump and the ever-increasing acceptance of alternative-fuel vehicles also likely play roles in boosting the Prius’ profile aren’t stretches of probability.

If you’re the cynical type, weary of a something as simple as a tally of search results telling the greater story of the popularity of the Prius, you need look no further than sales data to see how it is that apparently so many people might hunt down info on the Prius nowadays.

Model-year 2013 marks a commendable 17 years of Prius production, with first sales starting in Japan in 1997. In April 2011 Toyota had sold its 1 millionth Prius in the U.S. since the car first went on sale here in 2000.

For a more current perspective, peeking at our November Dashboard sales totals for the hybrid market you can see that the Prius Liftback’s 8,925 sales is more than twice as many as the next best seller. And 2012 year-to-date Liftback sales of nearly 135,000 units is more than three times the next best selling hybrid in a market of more than 40 models.

First in line

In the U.S. the car has essentially reached cult status; it has transcended from a practical means of personal transportation to being an icon. The Prius has been synonymous with green car technology for most of the past decade and a half.

While not taking anything away from Toyota’s design and engineering prowess behind the Prius, a key factor in the car’s success is often lost in the boiling enthusiasm for the green car market: the Prius got here first.

Yes, we know Toyota didn’t pioneer the technology of hybrid powertrain vehicles; the premise of such a machine has existed for decades. But Toyota was the first mainline automaker in years to make the green car leap into an American auto market traditionally in love with displacement, eye-candy appeal, and a long-running ethos of bigger is better.

Not only did Toyota jump into a red-hot caldron spilling over with fuel-swilling Escalades and Expeditions, but it also stuck the landing, and hasn’t looked back since.

2012 Prius c.

Being first to market with a product can pay immense dividends. A savvy company can leverage a product’s first-to-market status as a tremendously strong marketing and branding tool. If the product is viable and its image managed, a company can leave a positive indelible mark on the market that may reap rewards for years to come.

If you’re a hybrid car enthusiast old enough to remember, think back to a time before you were so enthusiastic. Think also of those friends, family, and casual acquaintances that even now only have cursory knowledge of green cars. When the term “hybrid car” first crosses eardrums, what comes to mind? Probably an image of a Prius.

As a brand the Prius is so well managed that it allowed Toyota to grow the Prius line. Now consumers can pick from among three hybrids: the Prius Liftback, Prius c, Prius v, and a plug-in hybrid, called simply enough, the Prius Plug-in.

Toyota has capitalized on its reputation of building reliable, user-friendly vehicles, and parlayed that cache of credit with consumers – as well as the Prius’ ability to do what Toyota implied the car could do (use less fuel, lower emissions, and save customers money) – into an image for the Prius that goes beyond Toyota.

2012 Prius v Five.

“Prius is a Prius first and a Toyota second,” said Toyota’s Group Vice President of Global Sales, Bob Carter, when the Prius family of cars became a top-three seller earlier this year.

Not universally loved, but loved by a loyal following

The car was, and still is, often derided for being a treehugger’s car of choice. Yet, despite no major departures in the car’s core styling theme that gives diehard auto enthusiasts the willies, the Prius has moved beyond being an automobile.

It’s hard to argue against the notion that for a portion of Prius owners the car is as much a badge of honor, an affirmation of lifestyle, or a 3,000-pound representation of ideologies, as it is a way to get from A to B.

2012 Prius Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle.

In 2007 the <em>New York Times</em> cited a marketing survey that saw 57 percent of respondents say they purchased a Prius because it made a declaration about them as a person, while far fewer (36 percent) purchased the car for its fuel economy.

However, like people and their ideals the king of hybrids isn’t infallible. The Prius has seen its share of safety recalls and negative press.

In November of this year Toyota issued a recall for certain 2004 to 2009 model-year Prius vehicles in the U.S. to inspect and in some cases replace the steering intermediate extension shaft. A total of 670,000 Prius were subject to the recall. In 2010 a similar number of cars were recalled for a coolant pump glitch, and the Prius was also caught up in the floor mat public relations nightmare in 2009.

More recently the Prius c was dubbed by Consumer Reports as a car to avoid.

The consumer watchdog publication reported that the c model it evaluated provided fuel economy figures far below the car’s EPA-rated 53 mpg city rating; the magazine also opined the c had poor ride quality and a chintzy interior. And just last week the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) rated the Prius v “poor” for its performance in the Institute’s new small overlap frontal crash test.

By and large, however, the Prius family of cars is generally regarded as a safe, economical, and reliable choice of vehicles.

Quietly storming the gates of automobile conventionalism

While the alternative-fuel powertrain vehicle market is currently but a sliver of the larger automobile scene, it is trending upward. Yet it’s virtually impossible to surmise the future of the green car merely by how many people visiting <em>Autoweek.com’s</em> searched for the Prius over the period of one year.

One the other hand, with the Prius surpassing the Corvette, not to mention the many other fuel-efficient, economical cars like the Ford Focus and Kia Optima that faired well in the AW.com top 12 searched list, you have to wonder if practicality is storming the gates of power and passion that for so long have underpinned the often emotional act of purchasing a car.

Had Toyota not so effectively implemented its Prius program, chances are that another manufacturer would’ve stepped in and had cracking success with some form of alternative-fuel vehicle.

Commercially successful green technology cars, like the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, Tesla Model S, or Fisker Karma, stand fully on their own merits, and appeared in their own good time. But the path to success for these, and the dozens more alt-fuel vehicles now on the market, were made smoother and more accessible by the Prius’ early and continued success.

How long, then, before the Prius and its contemporaries reach the top of everyone’s search list?

Autoweek.com

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Toyota – after years of doggedly stating that the Prius hybrid system was not compatible with a plug-in system, and repeatedly warning that lithium-battery-powered plug-in hybrids were too costly and the technology unproven – began delivering the Prius Plug-in Hybrid in March. Easily the most recognized hybrid on American roads, Toyota’s hybrid followers are cheering the automaker’s decision to finally plug in the Prius.

As the hybrid pioneer and leader, it makes sense that Toyota would make the step to the next cost-effective gasoline-electric technology. The chief benefit of a plug-in hybrid isn’t that it can be driven purely on electricity for several miles, but that it erases range anxiety, a fact that Toyota frequently points out. When the battery is depleted, the Prius Plug-in seamlessly becomes a conventional hybrid with the ability to be refueled with gasoline when needed and delivers fuel economy that exceeds gasoline-powered cars.

In general, Toyota’s position is that hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles with smaller and less costly battery packs – rather than pure electric cars with larger and very expensive packs – provide the most value and versatility for consumers overall. While the car itself hits that bull’s eye, the question is does the Prius Plug-in miss the target when it comes to price?

A Prius With More Electrons

Essentially, the new Prius PHV, or Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle, is a 2012 Prius Liftback with a more potent 4.4-kWh lithium-ion battery instead of the standard 1.3-kWh nickel-metal hydride battery pack, an onboard battery charger and an industry-standard charging port. As such, the Prius PHV can be charged and driven gasoline free for up to 15 miles at speeds up to 62 mph according to Toyota. But, under full acceleration or driving uphill while in EV mode, the system switches to full hybrid mode. And, like the regular Prius model, the PHV version shuts down the gasoline engine at a stop and accelerates away with the hybrid battery providing electricity to the front motor.

A depleted battery can be fully recharged in around three hours using a 120-volt household outlet. That time can be cut in half with a 240-volt home charging station.

Under the plug-in’s sheetmetal, the standard Prius parentage continues. The engine is a 98 horsepower 1.8-liter four-cylinder that operates on the Atkinson cycle and generates 105 pounds-feet of torque. (An Atkinson-cycle engine gives up a little power output in exchange for improved fuel efficiency and reduced emissions.)

The series-parallel hybrid system uses two high-output electric motors, one 60-kw (80 horsepower) unit that mainly works to power the transaxle, and another smaller motor that works as the electric power source for battery regeneration and as a starter for the gas engine. Combined output of the gas engine and electric motor is 134 horsepower, which is directed to the front wheels via a continuously variable transmission (CVT). And no, the combined output of the gas engine and electric motor is not an error. Output of the two occur at different rates, so in this case one plus two does not equal three. The electric motor produces 153 pounds-feet of torque but Toyota doesn’t publish combined torque numbers.

The Prius Plug-in offers three driver-selectable modes: EV, Eco, and Sport. EV mode operates as long as there is some battery charge available. Eco mode is programmed to maximize all driving conditions by modifying the electronic throttle control program as well as the air conditioning operation. Sport mode increases throttle response in the middle range that gives a boost to acceleration.

The standard Prius Liftback has an EPA fuel economy rating of 50 miles per gallon, and at best, it can travel about two miles on electric power only up to around 30 mph. By comparison, the Prius Plug-in is EPA rated at 95 MPGe (Miles Per Gallon equivalent): the car’s efficiency when operating on a mix of a fully charged battery and gasoline. When the battery is depleted and it operates as a hybrid, the fuel economy is 50 mpg combined – and 51 mpg city, 49 mpg highway – the same as the standard Prius.

When it comes to electric only operation, the EPA’s numbers for driving range are somewhat confusing. The estimated driving range for a fully charged battery combined with gasoline over a mix of city and highway driving is 11 miles. Then there’s the small print – 6 miles “All Electric Range,” not the 15 miles that Toyota touts.

Exterior And Interior

There is little that distinguishes the plug-in Prius’s exterior from its less-electrified sibling. Exclusive plug-in exterior trim includes a chrome finish on door handles and grille as well as blue-accent headlamps and LED taillight clusters. The most notable difference is the charging door on the right rear fender, which also has a chrome treatment. A close-up look reveals that the small front fender and rear badges are inscribed “Plug-in Hybrid” rather than just “Hybrid,” and a keen eye will notice the plug-in’s exclusive wheels.

Both cars exhibit a minor 2012 refresh, including a revised front fascia and bumper, plus new head- and taillights. In other words, there’s no elevated, “Look at me, I’m really, really green!”

Current Prius owners will feel right at home in the new Prius with a plug. Five adults can fit comfortably, with the same 16 cubic feet of cargo room left over in back. The 60/40 split rear seats still fold flat, creating a surprisingly large cargo space for hauling groceries, strollers, large boxes, and gardening supplies – all at the same time.

Interior storage spaces are abundant and flexible. The sound system is adequate, but not ground breaking. The stereo’s most-used functions are easy to see, read and use.

From the driver’s seat, everything is familiar and, yes, those annoying beeps when the unconventional shifter is positioned in reverse will not let you forget that you’re driving a Prius.

Behind The Steering Wheel

Last summer Toyota provided a pre-production Prius PHV for a weeklong evaluation. It was different from the 2012 production car we drove a couple weeks ago. The pre-production Prius PHV had a larger Li-ion battery pack, 5.2-kWh versus 4.4-kWh, and the pack weighed in at 353 pounds compared to 176 pounds. The smaller battery not only frees up space in the trunk, it also provides more electric-only driving range, 15 miles in contrast to the 13-mile distance of last year’s development model.

Like last year, the Prius PHV arrived in the morning with a depleted battery. Three hours later I selected the EV mode and backed out of our driveway with editor/wife Lynne seated next to me, charged with the task of monitoring the hybrid system’s energy flow. We had mapped out a 20-mile route of mostly flat roads with speed limits of 35 to 45 mph with the goal of driving with electric power only for as many miles as I could wring out.

Unlike the Nissan Leaf or Chevrolet Volt, acceleration from a stop lacks the zip of an electric motor’s instant-on torque. Instead, forward motion, while nearly silent, was steady but languid. With eggshell pressure on the accelerator, we clocked 13 miles of electric driving with the gas engine kicking in briefly one time traveling up a small hill. While that’s shy of Toyota’s estimate of 15 miles, it’s slightly more than double the EPA estimated 6 miles. But, the drive was on mostly flat roads and the accelerator was coddled – not exactly a normal daily excursion.

The rest of the time behind the wheel we primarily drove in Eco mode, a setting that most drivers will prefer when the EV mode is unavailable. When the Eco mode’s electronic go-pedal nanny became annoying, Sport mode injected a little life into the car. And yes, the Prius PHV can travel up to 62 mph on electric juice. Of course at that speed the battery depletes quickly, but it is a bit of fun to run at that velocity in near silence.

During our week with the extension cord connected Prius we topped the fuel tank twice. Before the first top-up, we clocked 132 miles – 102 miles on the Interstate – and plugged in twice with recorded fuel mileage of 66.2 mpg. Before the last fill up we drove 86 miles – mostly in the city – and plugged in after each trip that varied from 9 miles and 22 miles with a recorded 82.3-mpg. That’s an average of 74.25 mpg for the 218 miles driven.

From a dynamic standpoint, the Prius PHV has had all the character and personality ironed out with little passion to be found underfoot. If you’re looking for entertainment, it’s better to play with the multiple electronic screens on the dashboard. This is a driving appliance meant to get you from point A to point B while delivering fuel economy numbers that other car companies can only dream about. The only deal breaker might be the cost.

Ouch! A $32,000 Price Tag

The starting price for the 2012 Prius Plug-in is $32,000. That’s $8,000 more than the base Prius Liftback Two. And even after a federal tax credit of $2,500, the car is still close to 30 large, which is close to fully loaded Prius Liftback Five’s price of $29,805. Thankfully, there are various individual state incentives that can help ease the sting of the purchase price and, it qualifies for the coveted solo High Occupancy Vehicle (carpool) lane status in several states. For some commuters that alone is worth the price.

So, what do you get for your hard-earned money besides the eye-popping fuel economy? Quite a lot, actually: A “smart key” keyless entry system with remote air conditioning; power windows, locks and outside mirrors; tilt/telescopic steering wheel with audio, climate, Bluetooth and voice-command controls; heated front seat; cruise control; Display Audio with Navigation and Toyota’s Entune 1; and an integrated backup camera.

If you can’t resist bells and whistles, the Prius Plug-in Advanced goes for $39,525. It includes the above plus bonus features such as radar-guided cruise control, a pre-collision system, head-up display, navigation system, a rockin’ audio system and Toyota’s Entune 2 Internet connectivity.

Is This Plug-in Hybrid For You?

If your one-way commute is 10-12 miles and you can plug in at work, you would use little, if any, gasoline all week. However, a 30 or more mile run to the office and no chance of plugging in means fuel mileage closer to the 49 mpg. That suggests the conventional Prius with its 50 mpg combined average is the wiser choice.

Then again, if the one-way trip is around 40 miles with a place to plug in, perhaps the Chevrolet Volt with its 38-mile EV range is the best choice to kick the oil habit. Sure, it appears the 2012 Volt, with its $39,145 sticker price, is seven grand more than the Prius Plug-in, but that is somewhat misleading because the Volt qualifies for a full $7,500 Federal tax credit. That means the difference between the Prius Plug-in and Volt works out to only about $2,145. It also has various state incentives as well as HOV privileges.

Whatever your driving habits are, you might want to wait until this fall to make a decision. Ford’s C-Max Energi plug-in arrives and is priced starting at $33,745 http://www.hybridcars.com/news/ford-prices-c-max-energi-33745-48864.html

minus the available $3,750 federal and possible state tax incentives. Plus the C-Max Energi can travel up 20 miles and up to 85 mph on electricity without the gas engine kicking in.

As for cost of ownership, Car and Driver magazine gives the Prius Plug-in an “Excellent” rating over five years. If you’ve done the math plus, believe you can come close to the magical 95 MPGe number, the Prius may be the plug-in for you.

Prices are Manufacture Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) at time of writing and do not include destination charges, taxes or licensing..

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Depending on how one drives it, Toyota’s Prius Plug-In can go a few miles farther than its U.S. Environmental Protection Agency rating, but officially it can be expected to travel 11 miles in electric-only mode.

This falls short of the “up to 15 miles” at speeds up to 62 mph estimated after consulting with Toyota for our full review.

Although not an apples-to-apples comparison, the Plug-In Prius is often weighed against the Chevy Volt, which is marketed as an “extended-range electric vehicle.” With its larger battery pack, the domestically produced rival from GM is intended to stay in all-electric mode at speeds of up to 100 mph for an EPA-estimated 35 miles distance – though this too can vary greatly depending on usage and ambient temperature.

As mentioned, plug-in Prius test drivers have routinely seen over 11 miles electric range, especially when driving it gingerly.

And where the Prius Plug-In’s EPA efficiency ratings begin to outdo the Volt is in other drive modes. In “EV Mode,” it’s rated at 95 mile per gallon equivalent, which a tad above a fully charged Volt’s estimated 94 MPGe. In hybrid mode, the EPA says the Prius Plug-In returns 50 mpg combined. This compares very well to the Volt’s 37 mpg combined in gasoline-only mode and means – in the absence of on-the-way recharging facilities – for longer trips the Toyota starts to pay back more.

While the two vehicles are often compared and contrasted based on more metrics than the scope of this brief can consider, in short it is a qualified decision to determine between the two.

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Today Toyota confirmed that the 2012 Prius Plug-in is approved by California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program (CVRP).

The vehicle will also be eligible for California HOV lane sticker for solo access, and is eligible for a first-come, first served $1,500 rebate available to anyone who purchases or leases a Prius Plug-In for 36 months or longer.

Combined with a $2,500 federal tax credit, California Plug-In consumers could net $4,000 if all incentives are fully taken advantage of.

As explained in our review, the Plug-In utilizes a 4.4-kwh lithium-ion battery. It offers fairly quick recharging at 2.5 to 3 hours using an ordinary 120-volt outlet, or 1.5 hours if with a 240-volt charger.

Toyota has started its limited 2012 roll out to dealerships, with nationwide availability scheduled for 2013.

For now, 14 states will get the Plug-In, these being: California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia.

The base MSRP for the Prius Plug-In Hybrid is $32,000 while the Advanced model has an MSRP of $39,525. This latter version comes standard with features including Premium HDD Navigation with Entune, Plug-In Hybrid Applications through a smartphone, Head-up Display, Dynamic Radar Cruise Control, and more.

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Toyota has upped its fuel-efficiency projection for its Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHV), according to Bloomberg, which reports the automaker expects to top the Volt in its U.S. Environmental Protection Agency fuel economy rating.

Toyota’s U.S. Group Vice President Bob Carter, said the Plug-In Prius (AKA PIP) should manage 50 mpg in hybrid mode for combined city/ highway mileage, and earn 95 MPGe assuming its 4.4-kwh lithium-ion battery is recharged frequently.

“It’s still an estimate, but we are confident it’s going to be 95,” Carter said of Toyota’s projection Tuesday. The EPA rating will be known “in a couple weeks,” he said.

In comparison, the extended-range electric Chevrolet Volt can go more than 25-50 miles on a charge or so, is rated at 37 mpg combined, and 94 MPGe when relying mostly on battery power.

Toyota’s news represents an increase from a September estimate of 49/87. Satoshi Ogiso, chief engineer for Toyota’s Prius models, said the higher estimate follows further battery pack testing and additional newly developed “control programs.”

But before Prius fans get too excited, GM Spokesman Rob Peterson said driving conditions further separate the PIP from the Volt.

“The big difference here is in real-world conditions,” Peterson told Bloomberg. “The Volt’s ability to go all-electric at all speeds for 25 to 50 miles allows most drivers to commute on electricity only.”

The PIP has an electric-only mode top speed of 62 mph compared to the Volt’s top all-electric speed of 100 mph.

“At any point in time that a Prius driver exceeds 62 mph, their gas engine goes on,” Peterson said.

What’s more on average Volt drivers are filling their gas tanks but once a month, Peterson said.

For the PIP’s first year, Toyota aims to sell 15,000, compared to 45,000 year-two Volts.

But as you’ve also no doubt noticed, Toyota has a huge head start in gas-electric vehicles, and dominates in the hybrid market segment, occupying more than half of U.S. hybrid sales with its Prius line. The regular Prius, now called the third-generation “Liftback” has loomed large with over half of the limited hybrid car market.

Counting Prius v sales, the year-end total for the Prius line was 136,463 units sold compared to the next in line, Lexus (another Toyota brand) CT 200h, which sold 14,381 in 2011.

Toyota has chosen to lump all Prius sales numbers into one category, and it is projecting all four Prius models combined to account for 220,000 U.S. sales in 2012.

The company is now demoted to third overall in global sales, however, following disastrous effects from the March earthquake and tsunami.

GM has regained this spot, followed by Volkswagen, with Toyota following.

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As its launch date approaches, both verifiable and speculative reports are circulating about the Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid.

Among them are that it is expected to return a standard-Prius-beating 107 MPGe, cut CO2 emissions from 89 g/km to 49 g/km, and will debut September 13 at the Frankfurt auto show.

In response to our inquiry, Toyota told us that the 2012 Prius plug-in will indeed be first presented at Frankfurt. The company is keeping a lid on other info, but we’ll tell you more of what the reports are saying just the same.

First off, the outstanding fuel economy and emissions efficiency reports appear to be correct. They are based on the car’s reportedly having gone through a UK drive cycle. In it, the Prius plug-in achieved a 128-mpg rating, which is being equated to 107 MPGe for the U.S.

Toyota was quick to qualify this report however.

“That number is based on a virtual test cycle,” said Toyota’s Amy K. Taylor in an email, apparently not wanting to over promise and under deliver. “We expect the number to vary in real world driving conditions.”

Like the standard Prius, the plug-in will use a 1.8-liter, 134-horsepower engine and a 60-kilowatt electric motor, with the addition of on-board charger for the battery.

The distance it can travel at speeds up to 60 mph remains a mystery.

Another improvement over the standard Prius – as well as the 2010 demonstration version (in photos) – is the 2012 production plug-in car’s battery is believed to offer slightly higher output to enable around 15 miles of all-electric range. This is up a wee bit from an estimated 13 miles – and remember it could even be higher, and we probably won’t know for a few more weeks.

Rumor has it that the 2012 Prius Plug-in’s battery could be as large as 5.2 kWh.

Taylor said the 2010 demonstration version had a 3-kWh battery, and all-electric speed of 60 mph, but of the 2012 version, said only, “Product details have not been announced regarding the production vehicle.”

Since Taylor did not deny an improved battery, it remains possible a more powerful, maybe even more compact battery pack will come with the 2012 plug-in Prius.

Recharge time from 120-volt house current for its battery – that could be around one-fifth to one-third the size of the Chevrolet Volt’s battery – is for now still estimated at around 90 minutes. This comes from Toyota’s Web site and is based on the smaller battery however. A larger battery could take longer depending on charging setup.

One difference between Toyota’s thinking and General Motors’ approach to the Volt with its 16-kWh battery is that by giving the Prius plug-in a smaller, lighter, less expensive battery, it yields a lighter car with lower selling price.

Gas 2.0 and others report Toyota expects to sell 17,000 units for 2012, and estimated a U.S. price at around $26,000-$32,000 before incentives.

Here too, Toyota declined to verify the eager speculation abounding on the plug-in version of this most popular hybrid.

“We have not made any announcement regarding production plans,” Taylor said. “Pricing will be announced closer to on sale date.”

The Prius plug-in is due to go on sale in the U.S. in the spring of 2012, Taylor said.

She could not confirm if or when the Prius plug-in would be made available in other parts of the world.

“I’m not aware of the launching timing for other markets or if it has been announced yet,” Taylor said.

Since its introduction, the standard Prius, now in a third-generation version, has grown steadily to a high degree of popularity among alternative technology vehicles.

The cars are imported from Japan where the U.S. is largely blocked from competing on an even footing due to tariffs and alleged trade inequity.

Further, when factoring all the economic advantages a plug-in Prius will provide, it may be worth considering the ships required to transport the Prius use an enormous amount of bunker fuel – as much as 120 gallons per mile.

One very rough estimate put the consumption of bunker fuel needed to import approximately 141,000 Prii last year at around 40,000 metric tons, which also equates to tremendous amounts of CO2.

To help curtail this pollution, waste and expense, Toyota is experimenting with a fuel-efficient diesel-hybrid-solar ship.

We have not been able to acquire data to do a full apples-to-apples comparison along these lines between the Prius and the U.S.-produced Volt, however, which also contains imported components, some being costly, bulky, and required to be shipped in too.

General Motors does have plans for next year to begin domestically producing the Volt’s for-now imported battery cells which Volt Line Director Tony Posawatz said would also result in significant cost reduction.

GM-Volt

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The Toyota Prius threaded the needle of desirable consumer features: industry-leading fuel economy; all the necessary space and functionality of a midsize family vehicle; performance adequate for today’s driving needs; and an accessible price.

An examination of historic Prius sales reveals a slow and bumpy 11-year path. Reaching 1 million sales required years of production ramp-up, three generations of product development, and confronting ups and downs in the broader automotive market—including major economic woes, temporary government incentives, volatile gas prices, and even a runaway acceleration hoax. This trajectory, however, did not require the build-out of new vehicle fueling infrastructure or the need for consumers to accept range limitations—as plug-in vehicles will experience.

These are rounded Prius sales numbers, by year:

• 2000 – 6,000
• 2001 – 16,000
• 2002 – 20,000
• 2003 – 23,000
• 2004 – 54,000
• 2005 – 98,000
• 2006 – 108,000
• 2007 – 179,000
• 2008 – 159,000
• 2009 – 140,000
• 2010 – 141,000
• 2011 – 172,000 (estimated based on 43,000 in Q1, 2011)

On a worldwide basis, Toyota Prius topped 2 million sales in October 2010, while combined sales of all Toyota hybrids passed 3 million units last month.

Toyota estimates that, compared to an average gas car, the Prius has saved nearly 900 million gallons of gas, $2.19 billion in fuel costs, and 12.4 million tons of CO2 emissions. These figures are expected to accelerate as Toyota adds multiple vehicles to the Prius line-up, including the wagon-like Prius V this summer, as well as the compact Prius C and plug-in Prius next year.

Considering its lead, and its expanding line-up, it could be well towards 2020 before any other green car approaches the sales volume of the Prius. While other models and technologies can boast more radical reductions of emissions and oil use on a per-unit basis, the total environmental benefit of the Prius line-up has established a difficult (but worthwhile) environmental target to which other carmakers can aspire—especially considering the introduction of the Prius plug-in model which for many short-range drivers can represent a substantial reduction in oil use.

Love it or hate it—as a cultural icon, or for its dorky appearance and less-than-exhilarating acceleration—the Prius showed that American drivers are willing to go green. Just ask any one of the 1 million Prius owners who paid hard-earned dollars to put one in their driveway.

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“The problem is that we’re competing against ourselves,” said Bill Reinert, national manager, Advanced Technology Group at Toyota Motor Sales, speaking at the company’s Sustainable Mobility Seminar held in La Jolla, Calif. this week. The company convened academics and journalists to discuss the future of eco-friendly automotive fuels and technologies—and to launch the plug-in version of the Toyota Prius.

Instead of championing the Prius Plug-in Hybrid as an automotive savior, Reinert focused his energy on disclaimers of why the next iteration of the Prius—a plug-in version that can travel 13 miles without using a drop of gasoline—doesn’t make sense for a lot of consumers.

First, Reinert says, it’s going to be too expensive. The conventional Prius sells in the mid-$20,000, the “sweet spot where the public wants to spend their money,” according to Reinert. The Prius Plug-in Hybrid is going to exceed that price. “How do you offset the costs and make a cogent case for the customer, especially because the conventional Prius is so damn good?”

Bill Reinert, Toyota’s advanced technology guru, presenting in La Jolla. In his slide, he indicates that plug-in hybrids are outside the economic range of the mass market. Exact pricing has not been announced.

The third generation 2010 Toyota Prius is, in fact, very efficient. Its 1.8-liter internal combustion engine—forget about the batteries and electric motors for a minute—has set new records for efficiency. Reinert believes that adding lithium batteries and plug-in technology will mean even greater carbon reductions, but “they’re really expensive in dollars per ton reduction.”

Thinking Ahead

He also wrings his hands about battery longevity. “We design our car for the second buyers. We want the used buyer to still expect the car will perform adequately for them,” Reinert said. “That’s the case for every Prius you’ve ever read. Right now, we don’t have a battery problem.” He worries that bigger lithium ion batteries required to achieve the Plug-in’s 13 miles of all-electric range will degrade over time. The Prius Plug-in uses three different batteries—two to provide all-electric miles and a third battery for when the first two are depleted and the vehicle becomes a regular 50-mpg Prius.

The Plug-in Prius, which will be tested for the next two years, is almost identical to the 2010 conventional Prius. Besides the addition of extra batteries and a plug, the differences are fairly trivial: air vents under the rear seats to help cool the additional batteries; no manual EV button because the computer takes care of shifting in and out of all-electric mode; and a small indicator lighter on the dash that goes off when the three-hour full charge from a 110-volt outlet is complete. Otherwise, in terms of its driving characteristics, creature comforts and style, it’s a Prius.

Maybe Reinert—who as a long-time veteran of advanced auto technology has seen too many supposed silver-bullet solutions come and go—doesn’t want to foist another false panacea on to the public. “If you’re communicating 120 miles per gallon, and you’re actually delivering 60, that’s a problem. Remember how we created a firestorm when our Prius was rated at 50-something and people were getting 45 mpg.” Reinert also cautioned that cold weather and other variable conditions could significantly reduce range. “How do you make this transparent to the customer when there’s so much hype out there?”

Our First Impressions

Based on our 18-mile test drive of the Prius Plug-in along the gorgeous La Jolla coast, Toyota’s only worry should be how it will keep up with demand. Until the last mile of our route, when we put the car in power-performance mode, cranked the AC and floored the accelerator uphill, the car maxed out to 99.9 mpg. By the end of the trip, we tallied an average of 87.7 miles per gallon, with 12.6 percent of driving in EV mode. Our top EV speed was 62 mph, and the average speed—including a number of stops at long traffic lights—was 25 mph.

Our only gripe is that the dashboard designers didn’t move the decimal point over so we could see how far over 100-mpg typical driving would be.

Sudden bursts of acceleration would temporarily kick the Prius Plug-in out of EV mode, but invariably it returned to all-electric driving. Regenerative braking helped push the overall amount of EV driving beyond the advertised range to about 14 miles, during the 18 miles of mixed city-highway miles. It was more difficult to drain the plug-in batteries or to force the car out of EV mode than we had anticipated.

Bear in mind that this was a fairly short route. If your commute is 40 miles or longer, the percentage of all-electric driving obviously will be reduced. But if you commonly drive around 15 miles out and back, before getting access to a charge at home or work, then the Prius Plug-in Hybrid basically becomes a practical mid-size family electric sedan.

The Business Case

For Toyota, less range means less cost—and therefore better economics to compete against the conventional Prius. Reinert said, “Our idea is a small battery. Design the battery small and make a business case, and charge up more frequently.”

Toyota has been criticized for lagging behind the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt in the race for a plug-in mass-market vehicle. Too much has been made of this timing. During 2011, Toyota will be evaluating about 600 Plug-in Priuses around the world—to see how real-world drivers handle the vehicle and its charging—until it moves into mass production in 2012. That’s essentially what Nissan and GM are doing, but with a few thousand vehicles put on sale or leased in select markets in 2011, until they can ramp up production for 2012.

That’s the magic year when consumers will have a choice between:

• Nissan Leaf, an all-electric compact car with 100 miles range
• Chevy Volt, a relatively expensive mid-size plug-in hybrid sedan with 40 miles range
• Prius Plug-in Hybrid, a more moderately priced plug-in sedan with 13 miles range

You might like one option of the other, but the availability of three plug-in options far exceeds what we have today.

Jaycie Chitwood, manager, advanced technology vehicles group, is overseeing the Toyota evaluation project, which will generate a lot of vehicle use data, as well as market information about how Toyota customers view the conventional versus the plug-in Prius models. “There are people that buy for emotional reasons and they just love that freedom of all-electric driving,” Chitwood told HybridCars.com. “If they are already paying more for a Prius, then now they’re going to pay even more for a plug-in Prius. Where’s your value proposition? It’s either in lower cost of driving, and lower cost per mile for electricity versus gasoline, and it’s high MPG.”

We asked if all these attractive attributes might make the Prius Plug-in Hybrid a surprise hit.

Chitwood paused as if considering that possibility for the first time. “We’re open to that.”

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Canada has some of the world’s most generous consumer incentives for plug-in cars—and the most thoughtful pro-electric-car policies. Last year, Mitsubishi provided its all-electric i-MiEV to British Columbia government and utility fleets. The Canadian province will be among the first North American cities to roll out the Nissan Leaf electric sedan. And Toyota announced today that it will work with 13 partners test the Prius Plug-in Hybrid in British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Québec. The Canada project represents a test of five plug-in Priuses, out of 600 models being tested in global markets.

HybridCars.com spoke with Larry Hutchinson, director of production planning, Toyota Canada, at the 2010 Globe Conference in Vancouver, where the announcement was made. “Canada has very diverse geographical areas. We have prairies where people drive a lot of distance. We have areas with very cold weather. Canada has a role to play in understanding the consumer and this vehicle.” Canada is home to Toyota’s global cold weather research center in Northern Ontario. Cold weather has a definite adverse effect on battery performance and range.

The Prius Plug-in Hybrid, expected to hit the market about 2012, promises an electric driving range of about 12 miles—boosting fuel efficiency to approximately the equivalent of 75 miles per gallon. Today’s announcement marks Canada’s first test of a plug-in hybrid, rather than an all-electric car.

Each test vehicle will be fitted with a telematics device to capture performance data, and partners—BC Institute of Technology, University of Manitoba, Hydro-Québec, and the City of Toronto—are being encouraged to drive the plug-in Prius in as many road, traffic and weather conditions as possible.

Hutchinson believes the plug-in Prius will find a sizable market in Canada. “The conventional Prius is now a mainstream car. And as we learn more and more about it, I think the Prius Plug-in Hybrid could also go mainstream.”

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