After years of taking a wait-and-see approach to plug-in hybrids, Toyota yesterday officially announced its plans to produce and market a plug-in version of the Prius in significant quantities. According to Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada, the company will sell “several tens of thousands” of plug-ins a year globally beginning in 2011.

The announcement comes as other global automakers, most notably General Motors and Nissan, intensify marketing efforts to promote their plug-in cars, which go on sale in late 2010. By the time the Toyota Prius Plugin Hybrid becomes widely available, consumers will have at least three choices from major global automakers for cars that primarily drive on batteries charged at home or work. The top three reasonably priced plug-in cars will represent a range of costs and electric driving range.

The most expensive is likely to be the Chevy Volt, a plug-in hybrid offering up to 40 miles of all-electric range before an on-board engine sustains the batteries charge for an additional 300 miles. The Volt is likely to sell for about $40,000.

The pure electric Nissan Leaf will offer 100 miles of driving range, so 100 percent of its driving will be electric. As an electric car, rather than a plug-in hybrid, the Leaf will not have an engine, and therefore will be limited in range to about 100 miles before needing to be recharged. It’s expected to sell for about $32,000.

The Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid will likely be the least expensive, perhaps in the high-$20,000s, but will offer the least all-electric range, approximately 14.5 miles at speeds up to 60 miles per hour. (Previously, Toyota said the Prius Plug-in would have an all-electric range of 12 miles.) Short commutes could be zero emissions, but the Prius Plug-in Hybrid will rely on its gas engine more than the other vehicles—although it will be fully recharged more quickly.

All three of the vehicles will be eligible for tax credits, as high as $7,500. The Prius Plug-in Hybrid, which will use a 5.2 kWh lithium ion battery pack—compared to the Leaf’s 24 kWh pack and the Volt’s 16 kWh—will not qualify for as high a tax credit as the other vehicles.

Electric cars from Ford, Mitsubishi and others will also be in the running.

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Prius Plug-in Hybrid plug

In the race for electric and plug-in hybrid cars, Toyota will be able to leverage its commanding lead in conventional hybrids. In September, the company announced that cumulative global sales of the Prius topped 2 million units—far more than all other hybrid cars combined. Yet, GM, Nissan, Ford and others recently have taken aggressive steps to take a leadership role in the next generation of alternative vehicles, the plug-in hybrid and electric car. Toyota’s announcement about the Prius Plug-in Hybrid indicates that the company will not easily relinquish its market advantage—and perhaps more importantly, its image—as the leader in green cars.

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As winter storms tear through the Midwest and New England, new hybrid drivers are getting their first taste of hybrid driving in frigid weather. The twittersphere is chirping with tweets like, “The Prius and blizzards do not mix!” And “Prius in the snow, not working for me. Any advice?”

For years, some Prius drivers have been complaining about and discussing traction problems in the snow, especially when trying to drive up a steep incline. The conversations usually turn toward the issue of snow tires. Folks driving in tundra conditions, and hypermilers willing to put in extra effort, go even further with techniques such as blocking the grille opening.

Besides traction issues, the biggest complaint is a decrease in fuel economy. In this case, a little bit of common sense goes a long way. All vehicles—not just hybrid cars—get less mileage to the gallon on cold winter days. By most accounts, the drop-off in efficiency is somewhere between 10 and 20 percent. If you’re driving a 15 mpg SUV, you might not notice the drop to 13 mpg. But, if you’ve come to expect 50 mpg from your Prius, and you paid the premium to reach that level, then the drop to the low-40s will seem much more dramatic.

What causes the decrease in fuel economy during the winter? Engines take longer to warm up. Roads covered in snow and ice add resistance. Heaters suck energy. And
winter-blend gasoline is cut with various additives. That all adds up.

What can you do? The same things you should be doing all year round. Combine shorter trips into longer ones. Keep your car maintained and your tire pressure up. Don’t speed. If you can, don’t drive until the road is clear and the day warms up a bit.

Here’s a clear case where hybrid drivers can learn from each other. What are you doing to get through blizzards in your hybrid?

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There won’t be hybrids or electric vehicles in the motorcades at Copenhagen.

As an estimated 30,000 people flood the Danish city of Copenhagen for the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, critics are questioning why a climate conference has a carbon footprint larger than most small countries. More than 40,000 tons of carbon are expected to enter the atmosphere as a result of the conference, with most coming from transportation. Leaders and officials flew about 140 private jets to the summit, and are riding in approximately1,200 gas-guzzling limos while there.

While the symbolic act of low-emissions travel may not mean much—witness Ford, GM and Chrysler executives driving hybrids to Washington last year—the fact that organizers were unable to “green” the conference in any substantive way is troubling. It’s been more than 10 years since Kyoto, when nearly every government in the world came together and agreed that carbon emissions must be significantly reduced to prevent catastrophic climate change. Though awareness has grown and some action has been taken, it’s very telling that even the wealthy and powerful still can’t find low-carbon transportation options for a conference that is unlikely to produce much more than a few handshakes.

Limousine service operators in Copenhagen say that only five of the cars they plan to rent this week are hybrids, a dearth they blame on high import taxes. A number of auto companies, including Mercedes, Honda, Citroen and Think, reportedly provided a few dozen electric and alternative fuel vehicles—but those primarily are for demonstration.

Wheels of Progress, Two Instead of Four

“We want to be a test and laboratory country for electric cars, hybrid cars and other new technology,” said Lars Barfoed, the Danish minister of transport, prior to the meeting. “And as host of the climate change conference, that’s made us feel responsible and want to show the world we can do something.” The Danish government backs this promise with a $40,000 tax break on each new electric car—and free parking in downtown Copenhagen. But the number of electric cars on the road today is miniscule.

In January 2009, Shai Agassi of Better Place, a California-based start-up dedicated to building the world’s electric car infrastructure, promised that Denmark would have 100,000 charging spots in place and several thousand cars on the road by 2010. But the company failed to produce a single electric (via its partnership with Nissan-Renault), and only 55 charging spots, by the time of the conference.

The lack of green cars on the ground in Copenhagen suggests that Denmark’s transition to climate-friendly cars is way behind schedule—and that the hybrid and electric car revolution throughout the world will be dictated by market realities rather than photo opportunities and government grandstanding. Then again, for generations, Copenhagen has been one of the most bicycle-friendly cities in the world. Perhaps the most important symbolic act that President Obama could take is to travel by bicycle during his visit next week for the wrap-up of the Copenhagen convention. Even if nothing substantive comes out of the meeting, at least Obama would demonstrate a personal commitment to slightly reducing his own carbon footprint.

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In opening comments, California Gov. Schwarzenegger said, “I remember that the first car show I went to, there were like three cars with alternative fuel vehicles here. Three. Then there were 10, then there were 15, then there were 20. And today we have here more than 50 cars that are alternative fuel vehicles.” Here’s a quick rundown of the highlights.

Chevy Volt Will First Sell in California

GM unveiled the production version of the Chevy Volt, and confirmed that the plug-in hybrid—with an anticipated 40 miles of all-electric range—would first be offered in California. Bob Lutz, GM’s marketing chief, said GM would build about 10,000 Volt models during the first year, and eventually ramp up to as many as 60,000 unit per year. GM expects the price of the Volt to be about $40,000, minus a $7,500 US tax credit.

Lutz was cautious about the size of the electric car market. He said that most Americans would not be willing to spend the premium of thousands of dollars for an electric car, and said the total market for plug-in vehicles by 2015 would be 250,000 to 300,000 units. That’s approximately 3 percent of the new car market, roughly the size of today’s market for gas-electric hybrid cars.

Toyota Will Test 150 Prius Plug-In Hybrids in US

Toyota repeated its previous announcements that it will test the Prius Plug-in Hybrid in the US early next year. The rechargeable Prius Plug-In will provide up to 13 miles of all-electric travel at speeds of up to 60 miles an hour before the battery charge is depleted and reverts to a 50-mpg conventional hybrid. Starting in January, the company will put the first 500 official Plug-in Priuses on American, European and Japanese roads. Approximately 150 will be with fleets and consumers in California, Colorado New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington D.C. Toyota will use research gathered during testing to help develop a retail model, which goes on sale in 2012.

Mitsubishi i-MiEV Geeks Out

The all-electric i-MiEV went on sale to fleet customers in Japan earlier this year, and retail sales there are slated to begin there early next year. The four-seater with about 75 miles of range and a top speed of 80 miles per hour is expected in the US in 2011.
Mitsubishi also announced that the PX-MiEV, a plug-in hybrid crossover SUV promising 120 mpg, will arrive in the US in 2013. Mitsubishi used LA to announce it will lease four of the EV subcompacts to Best Buy’s Geek Squad, in preparation for the US arrival of the i-MiEV.

The Chevy Cruze Promises Big Impact

Hybrid and electric cars may be getting all the buzz, but the car promising the biggest overall green impact could be the gas-powered Chevrolet Cruze, which goes on sale late summer 2010. The 2011 Cruze, unveiled in LA, gives GM an opportunity to compete against mainstream fuel-efficient sedans like the Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic. Official fuel economy numbers are not yet available, but efficiency could exceed 40 mpg. The Cruze’s design, and fit and finish, are getting high marks from auto reviewers. Pricing info is not yet available.

Ford’s answer is the Fiesta, a subcompact car that also promises 40-mpg on the highway. More than 500,000 Fiestas have already been sold to customers in Europe and Asia. In the US, the Ford Fiesta goes on sale next year, to compete against the Toyota Yaris and Honda Fit.

Audi A3 TDI Win 2010 Green Car of the Year

Clean diesels are playing second fiddle to electric drive vehicles at the LA Auto Show. The one exception is the 2010 Audi A3TDI, which was named Green Car of the Year. Last year, another clean diesel, the VW Jetta TDI, took the honors. Jurors cited the Audi A3 TDI’s rakish styling, upscale appointments, and 42-mpg highway fuel efficiency, which is a 50 percent improvement over the gas-powered A3.

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“Our thoughtful application cost-effective, fuel-efficient technologies has helped us achieve our goal of leading the industry in fuel economy ahead of schedule,” said John Krafcik, president and CEO, Hyundai Motor America. Last year, Hyundai’s leadership promised to achieve the government-mandated 2016 CAFE standard of 35.5 miles per gallon by 2015.

The latest EPA numbers indicate that the Hyundai is moving faster than anticipated. Last year, Krafcik told HybridCars.com, “We’re taking fuel efficiency higher and faster than any other carmaker. We’re going to pass Toyota and Honda by 2015.” The company is now promising to extend its lead by launching direct injection and turbocharging technologies, as well as introducing its first hybrid in the US—the 2011 Hyundai Sonata Hybrid. “In this age, fuel efficiency is the new zero-to-60 time. It’s more socially relevant,” Krafcik said.

The runner-up carmakers in the EPA’s 2009 list of top five fuel-efficient carmakers are Honda (29.7 mpg), Volkswagen (29.6 mpg), Toyota (29.4 mpg), and Kia (28.0 mpg.)

Efficiency = Sales

Hyundai’s move to a more efficient lower-priced fleet of vehicles is resonating with consumers. While auto sales were relatively flat in November 2009, Hyundai’s sales surged by 46 percent. The automaker sold 28,045 vehicles, led by a 93 percent jump in sales of its compact Hyundai Accent and a 52 percent increase for Sonata sedans. High quality, low prices, and strong warranties helped Hyundai make its gains.

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President Barack Obama will propose that the US dramatically reduces greenhouse emissions when he attends the United Nations Climate Change Conference next month in Copenhagen. His proposed target is to reduce total emissions by 17 percent over 2005 levels by 2020. According to the administration, a big chunk of the reductions will come from improving vehicle fuel efficiency.

Early in his administration, Obama announced new fuel economy targets of 35.5 miles per gallon in 2020—a 40 percent increase from today. But how exactly do we make that 40 percent jump?

One avenue is switching to plug-in hybrid and electric cars as soon as possible. To push in that direction, the Obama Administration awarded $2.4 billion in grants for advanced batteries and electric vehicle research. But many experts say that electric and hybrid cars are unlikely to be sold in high enough numbers in the next decade to have much of an impact.

The Wall Street Journal reported today that “the fight to curb fossil-fuel consumption has often involved moon shots.” The article points to experts who say the smarter strategy is using unglamorous low-tech solutions. “The energy problem,” said Steven Chu, the US energy secretary, “can be advanced a long way by pretty low-tech stuff.” This view pushes the auto industry toward ho-hum solutions, like improving the efficiency of gas engines, making cars smaller and lighter in weight, improving aerodynamics, and offering new incentives for today’s most efficient gas-consuming cars, like hybrids.

Revolutionary versus Evolutionary Technologies

More evidence about the importance of low-tech solutions emerged this past summer, when a group of Silicon Valley technology investors looked at nine different emerging technologies—from biofuels and building efficiency to geothermal and nuclear—to determine which ones were capable of reducing annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 1 billion metric tons—a gigaton—by 2020. In a report called the Gigaton Throwdown, referenced by the Wall Street Journal, the group gave a thumbs up to improving the efficiency of existing buildings—but said that plug-in hybrid cars, one of the nine technologies—wouldn’t reach the gigaton threshold.

The Silicon Valley group said the only way plug-in hybrids could slash emissions by a gigaton by 2020 is if every single new car sold starting in 2010 were a plug-in hybrid. The report concludes, “This number is not possible based on any reasonable vehicle introduction and ramp-up strategy.”

The implications for government officials and the auto industry are to use a host of strategies, rather than single-point high-profile technologies like plug-in cars. The introduction of plug-in hybrids and electric cars must be developed in concert with improving the efficiency of gas-powered cars, reducing the amount people drive, and using “feebates” and other incentives to encourage sales of cars with higher mpg.

Fans of plug-in hybrids and electric cars might need to reset their expectations but should not be discouraged. The Silicon Valley group said, “In the longer term, by 2040 or 2050 and with more time for new vehicles to enter the fleet, some combination of electric drive vehicles that includes plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles, could achieve [targeted] emission reductions.”

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The Nissan Leaf on display in Walnut Creek, Calif., on Nov. 24, 2009.

The national tour for the all-electric Nissan Leaf continues to make its way across the country. We were able to see the five-seat 100-mile-range car yesterday in Walnut Creek, California—a few days before it arrives at the 2009 San Francisco International Auto Show. This gave us an opportunity to confirm a few key points, and discover one or two others.

• Priced Like Fully Loaded Prius

  The Nissan Leaf’s price—still not official—will be “about the same as a fully loaded Toyota Prius,” which means low-$30,000s. Only one package will be available, also fully loaded. No leather seats; the standard package features seats made from eco-friendly materials. (The Leaf is expected to qualify for a $7,500 tax credit.)

• Battery Leasing

  No definite word yet on battery leasing, but it looks likely. In other words, a portion of the purchase price will come off the top, and be financed in a lease to cover the 24 kilowatt-hour battery pack. The goal is to alleviate consumer concerns about battery longevity. If anything goes wrong with the leased battery, Nissan owns it—so the company replaces it. At the end of the lease, you can upgrade to a better battery, if it’s available at that time.

• Pre-Order in February. Wait for a Year.

  Pre-orders, with a “modest” deposit, will begin about February 2010. The first 5,000 cars go to the five markets participating in a Department of Energy project: Phoenix/Tucson, San Diego, Portland/Salem/Eugene (OR), Seattle, Nashville/Knoxville. Folks in other market will wait for their car to arrive in 2011. At that point, customers with deposits will take their first test drive, and decide whether or not to complete the transaction.

• Dramatic Lighting

  When viewed up close and personal, the design of the prototype on tour—one of only two in the world—is gorgeous. The most prominent features are the curved vertical strip of LED-powered taillights, and the prominent raised headlights—designed to reduce wind noise and resistance by splitting and redirecting airflow away from the windows.

• State-of-Charge Indicator Lights

  Three small charge-indicator lights on the top of the dashboard allow drivers to quickly glance at the car from the outside to see the state of charge—roughly one-third, two-third, or full (based on the number of lights). That’s an extremely convenient and useful feature.

• Inconvenient Spot for 110-volt Charging

  The charging port at the nose of the car allows for 220-volt and 440-volt rapid charging. But what about so-called “opportunity charging” from a standard 110-volt source? It’s possible, but the inlet is on the underbelly of the vehicle near the rear right wheel. Full-charge time at 220V is four to eight hours, while the 110V is 16 to 18 hours. So, the 110V is not the ideal choice, but the awkward location will require you to reach under the car.
  Correction – Dec. 1: The same port that handles 22-volt charging will accommodate 110-volt charges.

That’s all for now, until we get a chance behind the wheel of the Leaf mule next week. Stay tuned.

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Toyota said today it will reshape or replace accelerator pedals on 3.8 million vehicles involved in the company’s largest recall ever. The announcement expands the scope and expense of the recall, which was announced on Sept. 29. The step will be taken to reduce the risk that the pedal may be jammed in the floor mat. In addition, the company will replace original equipment floor mats with redesigned mats.

The recall involves 2004 to 2009 Priuses—and recent year models of the Camry, Avalon, Tacoma and Tundra, as well as Lexus models ES 350, IS 250, and IS 350.

Toyota will send first-class letters to owners of the Camry, ES 350, and Avalon by the end of the year. Owners of the other models will be notified throughout 2010.

In late September, Toyota announced the recall, saying that a loose floor mat could force down the accelerator, a problem suspected of causing crashes that killed five people. ABC News cited reports of 16 acceleration-related deaths and more than 200 accidents. Toyota said it has confidence the problem is linked to floor mats and not a vehicle design flaw or problems related to braking, fuel or accelerator systems. The recall could cost Toyota more than $5 billion.

Dan Edmunds, an Edmunds.com analyst and former engineer, said the actions proposed by Toyota today “are viable solutions to alleviate the problem.”

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When all eight stations are installed, Elk Horn will have a greater density of charging stations than just about any location in the United States, except for a few spots in California. In fact, he plans to spend another $50,000 next year to expand his efforts in Iowa and into Nebraska. Howard’s larger vision is to install a network of charging stations along the Interstate 80 corridor through Iowa from Denver to Chicago.

The entire state of Iowa has more than 4 million registered vehicles but just 96 electric-powered ones, mostly low-speed neighborhood electric vehicles.

“He’s definitely being progressive, but you know, somebody’s got to be first,” Pat Davis, program manager for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Vehicle Technologies, told Associated Press.

According to AP, Howard plans to ask electric car drivers to pay about $2 to $3 for a charge. He’s undaunted by the current lack of customers. “It’s going to be slow at first,” he said. “You’re not going to see a large influx of electric vehicles out there everyday.”

But the 57-year-old Howard, who has been interested in alternative energy since he was a kid, is on a mission. And he wants Elk Horn to play a role in the nation’s future in electric cars. “We have a dream about electric vehicles and we’re going to make that a reality,” he said.

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The BMW ActiveHybrid X6 will sell for $89,725. The two-mode hybrid mates a 4.4-liter twin-turbo 400-horsepower V8 engine with two electric motors delivering 91 and 86 hp each. The ActiveHybrid is geared for performance, granting 0-60 speed of 5.5 seconds. The hybrid system means a 20 percent improvement over the standard X6—but that only adds up to 17 mpg in the city and 19 on the highway.

Standard features include 7-speed automatic transmission, leather interior, 20-inch aero wheels, rearview camera with top view and heads-up display.

The Mercedes-Benz ML 450 Hybrid shows slightly more deference to fuel economy, with its 3.5-liter, 275-horsepower V6 and two motors providing 335 horsepower. Mercedes says the ML 450 Hybrid will deliver fuel economy of 21 mpg in the city and 24 on the highway. That’s a nice boost compared to the V8 ML550, which rates 13/18—and roughly compares to the clean diesel Mercedes ML350 Bluetec rated at 18 mpg in the city and 25 mpg on the highway.

Curiously, the Mercedes ML 450 Hybrid will only be offered on a lease of $659 a month for 36 months, or $549 a month for 60 months. Mercedes USA spokesman Rob Moran said, “We are offering this vehicle as lease only due to a limited supply of batteries available. We felt a lease only program offered the best option for customers.” Reading between the lines, Mercedes has some concerns about maintaining or replacing the nickel metal hydride batteries in the future. The new Mercedes S400 Hybrid, which went on sale a few weeks ago, uses lithium ion batteries—a technology expected to supplant the current nickel-based hybrid batteries.

More than four years ago, Deiter Zetsche, Daimler CEO, was fending off criticism about his company’s sluggish plans for producing a hybrid gas-electric vehicle. He quipped, “As my wife often says, if you know you’re going to arrive a bit late to the dinner party, be sure you bring the best wine.” With the ML 450 Hybrid and the BMW ActiveHybrid X6, German carmakers have arrived to the hybrid party with keg-sized jugs of expensive stuff. Unfortunately, the most exciting green car party has already moved on to plug-in hybrids and electric cars with much greater potential to reduce fuel use and emissions.

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