A new report is suggesting that American demand for gasoline as a motor fuel could drop by 5 percent over the next two decades – or perhaps by as much as 20 percent.
The report, released Monday by energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, said that if electric vehicles gain a market share of more than 35 percent by 2035, American gasoline use could drop from the current level of nine million barrels per day by as much as two millions barrels per day.
The 20-percent scenario assumes that automakers can get affordable EVs with longer ranges to market quickly. Prajit Ghosh, the author of the report, suggests that a more likely case is a 5 percent drop in gasoline use as EVs reach 10 percent of the market by 2035.
Volkswagen, Ford, Toyota, Volvo, Hyundai, Nissan, Chevrolet, and Tesla are all working on affordable EVs that have longer ranges, and the first of those, the Chevrolet Bolt, Nissan Leaf, and Tesla Model 3 and are scheduled to hit the market soon.
Wood Mackenzie’s forecast is pretty bullish, even at the lower end, but with so many automakers working to increase the number of hybrids and EVs on the road, it might be a fair prediction.