Dear AEMan
Created January 25, 2005, at 8:14 am by Anonymous
I'm a big fan of alternative energy also. I agree with alot of what you've written. I wouldn't mind building codes requiring solar cells on every home in the sun belt. I also think it is much more scenic to see large wind mills off our coasts than to not have them there, as others would say. Unfortunately, I think we would disagree on the nuclear power thing. I know this isn't the forum for a nuclear power discussion, but you set the precedent.
Nuclear power will never be necessary in our lifetimes because there is so much energy to be saved on the demand side. Nuclear power has essentially lost in the free market: no nuclear plants have been built in decades. The reason is that they are too expensive, too risky, and that there are other, better, economic solutions to power generation problems and to global warming.
First, if they were economical, they would have been built. I know that a lot of environmental groups get the blame for stopping nuclear power, but the fact is, environmentalists protest a lot of things that still happen. If nuclear power were economical, plants would have been built. Besides, even protests are part of the free market.
Even with their massive subsidies for research, mining, security, waste disposal, insurance, etc., they still are NOT economically worthwhile. To put things in perspective, consider that a nuclear power plant will cost about $5-10 billion--I think the last one I heard of was estimated at $2 and came in at $5 billion--but don't quote me on those numbers. (I used to work for Babcock and Wilcox, who designs power plants of all types.) If we as a country would spend that same amount of money on near-zero-energy homes, we would negate the need for that nuclear power plant altogether.....forever.....! And....we wouldn't have all the associated problems either.
Just recall California's energy problems in 2001. The immediate problem wasn't solved by building new power plants within days, it was solved by millions of people conserving. Conservation is immediate, with an immediate pollution and global warming benefit.
It is always cheaper, more effective, and more immediately amenable to the bottom line to buy efficiency, rather than energy. (That's why I own a Prius.) By eliminating the need for nuclear power plants, we don't just eliminate very expensive power, we eliminate the need for strip mining, nuclear waste disposal problems, tax-payer paid security, proliferation dangers, exposure risks, meltdown risks, terrorist plots, tax-payer paid insurance, etc. ad nauseum. By the way, if the true cost of nuclear-provided electricity were in the actual electric bill of the customer, then I would be all for it. No corporation would ever propose building one if that were the case.
The nuclear salesman may be reappearing on our doorsteps, but we don't have to talk to him--we should sic the dogs on him! Nuclear power is not only a bad idea, but it will also make global warming worse. By sinking hard-earned capital into a very expensive, inefficient solution, that capital is not available for the more economic solutions. I believe I read that a dollar spent on energy efficiency displaces 7 times as much CO2 as a dollar spent on nuclear power. It is better for our country as well as our savings accounts to go after the best buys first.
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Thanks Vince, that's quite a statement!
Let's look at the facts.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has this 2000 report:
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/PressReleases/2001/prn0107.shtml
It shows:
438 Reactor plants were operating world wide.
2447.53 terawatt-hours combined.
In 2000 six plants were put on line.
The output added over 3K MW to the grid.
Nuclear provides 16% global elecricity.
Nuclear reliance is:
76.4% France
73.7% Lithuania
73.7% Belgium
56.8% Sloak
53.4% Ukraine
45% Bulgaria
42.2% Korea
39% Sweeden
20% United States
17 Countries rely on nuclear to supply more than 1/4 thier electric power.
In Europe there are 68 new reactors being built to replace the aging ones.
Middle East, Far East, South Asia, China, India, Korea and Japan all have clear plans of expanding nuclear power.
http://www.nei.org/doc.asp?catnum=3&catid=13
QUOTE:
Amount of electricity generated by a 1,000 MWe reactor at 90% capacity factor in one year: 7.9 billion KWh - enough to supply electricity for 773,000 households. If generated by other fuel sources, it would require:
Oil - 13.5 million barrels 1 barrel yields 584 KWh
Coal - 3.8 million short tons 1 ton yields 2,070 KWh
Nat. Gas - 82 billion cubic feet 100 cubic feet yields 9.62 KWh
I guess I don't get your point. Just pointing out facts of how much electricity is generated by nuclear power plants doesn't mean they're the right choice. Sixteen percent of worldwide energy being produced by nuclear power means 84% is not produced by nuclear power. The fastest growing source of energy is wind power. I've lost almost all respect for business leaders in the last few years due to all the business scandels, but I don't think these folks are building wind farms to lose money.
Yes, there may be some studies that can show nuclear power to be economical. However they generally fail to include the hidden costs mentioned in the previous post: security, nuclear proliferation, terrorist attacks, insurance, outright government subsidies, etc. These are all costs that we pay as a country, NOT the individual user. If they were included in the analysis, then nuclear power would not be economical. If the TRUE cost of the electricity were in the electric bill, then I would be all for it.
In addition, paying off the right politician has a lot to do with bad ideas being promulgated.
I think my original point still stands. That 1000 MWe nuclear power plant that supplies 773,000 homes cost a certain amount of capital. If that capital were instead spent on building near-zero-energy homes, and/or making existing homes more efficient, then that plant would not have been needed in the first place.
One more thing for all the supply-siders to think about. Without conservation, energy demand grows at an exponential rate. It is impossible to indefinitely supply energy to meet exponentially growing demand. The only smart thing to do is to affect demand. And there is plenty of available technology to enable us to do that. It will also save you money.
Please don't get me wrong, I'm all for conservation. In fact I'm averaging about 58MPG in my HCH, in spite of the winter.
The idea I was making is that many of your points are flawed, please let me point out a few.
Please reference the statistics link I previously gave:
"Nuclear power has essentially lost in the free market: no nuclear plants have been built in decades. The reason is that they are too expensive, too risky, and that there are other, better, economic solutions to power generation problems and to global warming."
"First, if they were economical, they would have been built. If nuclear power were economical, plants would have been built.
The facts I've posted show this is false.
"Even with their massive subsidies for research, mining, security, waste disposal, insurance, etc., they still are NOT economically worthwhile."
I got your conservation message, but this statement isn't factual, as Ihave shown.
"Just recall California's energy problems in 2001. The immediate problem wasn't solved by building new power plants within days, it was solved by millions of people conserving"
Yes, many people conserved more than usual to help this but the immediate problem was resolved (or made worse) by Governor Davis purchasing electricity off of neighboring grids for several times the cost. It was caused by years of miss management.
"By eliminating the need for nuclear power plants, we don't just eliminate very expensive power, we eliminate the need for strip mining, tax-payer paid security, tax-payer paid insurance, etc."
Statistics show Nuclear is much cheaper, strip mining will still go on (Iron, Coal, other minerals).
Security and insurance isn't exclusive to Nuclear.
"If the true cost of nuclear-provided electricity were in the actual electric bill of the customer, then I would be all for it. No corporation would ever propose building one if that were the case."
I'm sure the plants in these areas aren't on the U.S. taxpayers dole:
France
Lithuania
Belgium
Sloak
Ukraine
Bulgaria
Korea
Sweeden
Middle East
Far East
South Asia
China
India
Korea
Japan
"Nuclear power is not only a bad idea, but it will also make global warming worse. By sinking hard-earned capital into a very expensive, inefficient solution, that capital is not available for the more economic solutions."
Once again, the facts are contrary.
Personally I'd love to see more windmill fields, I think they simply look amazing, in an elegant way. You can even farm right up next to them. I've also heard that implimenting costs more than what can be generated. About 30 years ago I read about a system that generates energy from ocean waves, but haven't heard anything since.
With Nuclear being the least expensive in compared to our other popular generating fuels of coal and natural gas it just makes sence.
(Except in the case of hydroelectrics, which can lead to other conservation problems)
We can go on a long time, and I don't have a fast enought connection to get all the information I need, however........
Neither of the sites you provide show the cost of nuclear-generated power. However, knowing people that get their electricity from different utilities, and having previously worked at a company that used to design nuclear plants, as well as coal- and gas-fired power plants....the typical cost for nuclear power-generated electricity is $0.10-0.12/kW-hr, coal and natural gas are usually $0.06-$0.08. Many utilities own several different types of power plants so there is sometimes overlap in these numbers.
Generally in terms of expense: for conventional fuels, natural gas is cheapest, followed by coal followed by nuclear. Wind power, in the right location, is comparable to coal-fired power plants, and solar cells are comparable to nuclear in cost. Unfortunately this information is from articles I have read and I don't usually save them for reference.
From the American Wind Energy Association, wind power is the fastest growing source of electrical energy. It has grown at 28%/year from 1999-2003.
http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/FastFacts2004.pdf
I would say that any power source growing at that rate has to be more economical than other sources.
When I wrote that no nuclear power plants have been built in decades I was speaking about the US. So I'll give you that one since I wasn't specific enough. But there have been many power plants built in the US in the last 30 years, just no nukes.
Statistics do not show that nuclear power is cheaper. If we really wanted to see which would win out, we would need a true free market. We should stop subsidizing all power plants, whether through research, tax breaks, insurance, security, etc. The number one winner would be conservation.
The true cost of the nuclear power plant is not in the customer's bill. Taxpayers pick up the tab for a lot of expenses, and risks. As for all the other countries you mentioned, if we had access to their data, I would bet that there are many hidden costs that the ratepayers are picking up, either through their taxes, or through higher risk due to lower safety standards.
If any nuclear power plant gets built in this country, look for a lot of taxpayers to be footing the hidden costs.
hello AEman,
Do you have the link to that General Atomics study on hydrogen production? Sounds interesting. While Vince is right about the need for conservation and energy efficiency we still need a power source and nuclear is far cleaner than coal as well as having other advantages. I am not an expert, just an opinionated lout who likes nuclear reactors. Eventually we will have helium 3 fusion and beamed energy from solar power satellites, but between now and then, it looks like nuclear will be the way to prevent CO2 increases and attain energy independence by using nukes to make autofuel. Check out http://www.electricauto.com, the Apollo Energy Systems website. They have some impressive hybrid tech using liquid ammonia, a better hydrogen carrier.
In your favor, Vince, if hybrids get twice as much mileage and the population doubles by 2050, we'd only using as much gasoline as we do today for cars if all were hybrids. Though I see nukes as necessary, conservation and efficiency are just as important or the number of reactors could become alarmingly great. Winds, ethanol, solar, etc. will all be a part of the future. What ever became of OTEC? Why not OTECs combined with stirling motors to make the hydrogen? Of course, I think liquid NH3 is the autofuel of the future for fuel cell hybrids. Maybe I'm just nuts, but investigate AES first before you committ me to the asylum!
http://www.forbes.com/business/global/2005/0207/024.html
Interesting. The Forbs article above had a very good roundup of all the money and special deals the nuke industry is currently asking for. But apparently, only in the print version.
An astounding list, if anyone can find a copy.
OK, found the correct article.
Nukes exist only because they can suck up unlimited government (tax money) funds. They do not and have never been a sound ($) business proposition.
What this has to do with hybrid cars is simple. The hybrid is an example of an emerging technology that has great potential to address future energy needs. If we dump billions down the nuke rat hole, those billions are no longer available for long range solutions like the hybrid. For this reason alone, nukes are a bad option.
Hybrids are not our only option. There are also BEVs and wind turbines and photovoltaics and others. There is also great potential for much greater efficiency through technology. If nukes were our only option, they would be, at best, a very lousy option.
How far could we advance solar generation or wind or biomass with this kind of government backing? How much more advanced would the battery in a BEV or hybrid be, by now, if we had spent as much Gov. funds on Battery technology?
My personal feeling is that if nukes produced toxic waist that lasted 25 years, they would be a last resort. Waist that last 250 years would boot them out of the running. But waist that lasts 25,000 years is a ridiculous proposition. The epitome techno arrogance. However, if the nuke backers are able to move the Yucca Mountain facility to Washington DC, I am all for it.
"The industry has lots of friends in Washington, D.C. Last year utilities chipped in $42.6 million in lobbying and contributions to politicians, three-quarters of that to Republicans, reports the Center for Responsive Politics. The Bush White House is sympathetic to nukes. The Department of Energy in 2002 launched Nuclear Power 2010 to get a new reactor built by the end of the decade. It's more than a nudge: The plan also suggests a taxpayer-backed fund for engineering costs; the industry proposes direct or loan guarantees by the feds and electricity purchases by the government.
Utilities have gotten federal subsidies even as the infamous Energy Bill has languished year after year. With all the negative press on the proposed drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Congress has tacked on $35 million here, $29 million there to its annual spending bill to help the nuclear industry conduct site and permit work. When a marked-up energy bill makes the rounds early this year, it will likely suggest further study of options for fuel recycling and earmark $1.8 billion to get new reactors built pronto.
The bill does not yet give NuStart what it wants most of all: government guarantees of construction loans for new, untested reactor designs. Such backing would help lower the cost of borrowing. (Without the guarantee, the bonds would most likely be rated slightly lower than the utilities' other bonds.) But why stop there? The utilities also want two fat tax credits--one allowing them to deduct 20% of their spending on new reactors and a second to lop off 1.8 cents for every kilowatt-hour of power produced by the new plants. That's the same treatment Congress granted wind-turbine makers in 2003.
That last sticks mightily in some craws--particularly that of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). Applied to the average 1,000-megawatt power plant, the credit would result in tax breaks of $150 million a year. That's too high a price for Michele Boyd, legislative director for antinukers at Public Citizen, the Nader-founded group. "They want cradle-to-grave subsidies in order to try to make nuclear power competitive," she complains. "
http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2005/0131/084_3.html
I used to be as hard on nuke power as you are but I've softened up on it. Even so, hybrids, heat pumps, energy efficient architecture, triple pane argon filled windows (cut natural gas heating expenses but also some could drive hybrids running on CNG saved... or ethanol. Is a multifuel hybrid possible??), winds, solar, biomass, hydro, mass transit, old fashioned walking ( I live in the city and you can walk to all the stores. Suburbia is the energy hogging monster brainchild of Ford where you can't live without a car!), fluorescents and LEDs, are a big part of the future. There will be nukes but conservation and alt. energy sources should be fostered as much or more so to minimize reliance on nukes. In 50 years or less we will have fusion and the fission age will end. Plenty of fuel for hybrids will result from fusion. I see no reason to return to gas hogging if the fusion age yeilds a vast bounty of energy because I see no reason to spend all my money on energy. Gotta wonder about people who drive gas hogs. They must like burning up their money. Sort of like smoking and gambling. Am I getting off topic? Well what if the tobacco fields became energy plantations and they put a Federal tax on gambling to support our national parks??? It all relates.
Gentlemen:
It seems strange to keep a fairly lively discussion about nuclear power going on a hybrid car website, so I think this will be the last time I comment on it (maybe ;-) ). Besides, hybrids and energy efficiency investments go together.
I haven't commented on this website for a while since I just picked up my '05 Prius two weeks ago and I am still playing with it.
I'm not necessarily against nuclear power, I just don't think it will make sense--economically, environmentally, etc.--for at least 100 years. The reason I say this is because I believe there is so much waste out there now, whether in gas, electric, gasoline, oil, etc. that we can reduce energy demand for a long time without needing subsidies to increase supply.
I believe it is much better to provide incentives and penalties on the demand side than on the supply side. Encouraging people to reduce demand for energy (raw materials too, etc.) will enhance the free market and let it work its magic much better than incentives on the supply side. Supply side incentives generally go to a few large companies that generally don't have my (our) best interests in mind. But demand side incentives let me (us) decide what we want to buy, and let the corporations supply that demand, which is the way it is supposed to work. Supply side incentives are also hidden and therefore we as consumers don't pay the true cost of a product, since it is already subsidized before we buy it (I'm talking oil, electricity, gas here, but I believe this works for other products as well).
And as I mentioned in previous posts, it is cheaper to give people money to buy efficiency, than to give a corporation money to produce power, or drill for oil or gas. The subsidy would be the same in both cases, but the benefit to the economy and the country is better for the first method. Since windpower is much cheaper than nuclear power, I also think the hydrogen economy can be fueled using windpower and again nuclear power won't be necessary for a long time, it at all.
As a consumer, I would rather put my money into a hybrid car, than keep buying more oil/gasoline. California (I'm from Ohio) pays roughly $21 billion per year on health-care related costs due to diesel particulate pollution alone. (Gasoline vehicles also produce soot, just not as much.) This is from a Union of Concerned Scientists report "Sick of Soot." I may not see a payback from helping to reduce that soot, but the country as a whole does and that's good enough for me.
I like the way you think, Vince. Better to avoid "necessary evils" like nukes if we can by reducing demand. We need government policies that foster demand reduction rather than supply increases so that people can continue living lavishly and wastefully. However, industry needs lots of power, so even if we all make full use of demand reducing technologies reliable power has to come from somewhere. Have you ever read Marshall Savage's "The Millenial Project"? I can't agree with his entire vision but he writes some real good stuff about OTEC power. Also, in 100 years we will have fusion and space solar power. Possibly sooner.
guys - admit it. oil power controls the future energy methods we will see.
british petrolium & shell oil are the largest suppliers of solar electric panels.
of course solar power has been researched & developed by oil money & will magically become available once all the easy oil has been pulled from the ground.
it's a shame we dropped the nuke energy so totally 30 years ago. with today's technology in design & manufacture we could build VERY reliable plants.
everyone here is arguing nukes based on 40 year old technology.
to turn out backs so completely on nukes is like turning our backs on fire because we can get burned.
see ya
Right on. Thank you, Steve.
Steve, many universities are founded upon the principles that all business and corporations are inherently evil. Proof of this is in folks like the professor in Colorado who said the real terrorists in the September 11th attacks were the people who worked in the World Trade Center.
Universities have been the biggest proponents of solar power in the world. They get their own research budgets, their own staff, their own labs, and conduct their own experiements. Last time I checked, no one has been able to get much more than 16% efficiency out of a solar panel. The sun produces about 1000 watts of power per square meter, which means we can turn that into maybe 150 watts under ideal conditions.
No one has been able to do much better than that, even in the labs. If you did even 10 minutes of research on solar power you'd stop with the conspiracy theory act about how oil companies are stopping solar power or whatever.
i never reported a conspiracy theory of oil controlling solar power, i simply stated the fact that they already control it.
go buy pannels & see for yourself where they are made. living in california i'm glad that shell oil is just up north a bit employing people in the manufacture of these panels.
and from a business point of view why wouldn't you cover today's bet with ideas on the next futre bet?
and colleges also don't set up labs and conduct tests of substance without grant money.
and grant money usually comes from the government or deep pocket corporations.
simply fact, no conspiracy.
see ya
Environmentalists too often rely upon fear to motivate the public against nuclear power. Terrorist attacks are the latest bogieman, as is "nuclear proliferation". But all these things are scare stories appealing to emotion. The fact is there are countries like Iran and Korea that will have nuclear weapons at some point ,no matter what the US government decides about nuclear power. They don't have anything to do with each other.
Wind and solar are nice in theory but they won't supply the power that the world needs, they are not realistic solutions to burning coal or natural gas for electricity.
My theory why environmetalists generally hate nuclear power; because nuclear power came about because the hippy generations parents created it. It was part of the "establishment". It was created by the "military industrial complex", so it's inherently bad. This is an extremely childish view, but it sums up the root of the problem.
There are exceptions. European environmentalists are increasingly pro-nuclear, after seeing several failures of wind and hydroelectric plants to create sustainable power and meet the Kyoto treaty obligations in the short run. Germany and Sweden are slowly halting the shutdown of their reactors, as well. James Lovelock, the creator of the Gaia hypothesis, is pro nuclear-energy, as are many other European greens. But it would only be fair to say this is controversial, even among European greens.
i think some reasons people don't like nuke power is because growing up such terrible accidents happened ~ from very unreliably designed plants. word on the "half life" of the spent fuel rods is rumour after rumour, and i will not add much except to say it's not hazzardous anywhere as long as people think.
today we certainly know more about design and manufacture. quietly naval boats & space probes are using nukes safely. the days of the nuke accidents were before PC's were invented!
we'll build a new nuke again one day. possibly in an aera depressed who want the plant as a way to get an economic shot in the arm for their small town.
see ya
Try this notion: wind and solar are not sustainable practices when used as centralized power generation.
As mentioned earlier the big Euro efforts with wind did not pay off. All of the utilities who have tried end up with an average availability of the windmills to produce power only 30% of the time. Worse for solar. Sinking money into wind farms that sit idle while other sources, probably fossil based, are lighting up the grid is not cool with me.
That being said, I think wind and solar work on a decentralized basis, where the individual can make the decision about the high capital cost and uncertain payback period. But for the central power distribution it is absolutely necessary to have a reliable source that can kick in any time to pick up the slack on those windless nights.
In order to meet this need in a carbon-free manner, we can either go build an orbiting solar array and figure out a way to beam the power back to earth or we could start building nukes. I recall someone earlier was talking about economic viability....
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