NADA Used Car Guide Sees Electrics Gaining Ground Over Hybrids in Sales

A new analysis paper from NADA Used Car Guide sees growing consumer interest in electric vehicles at the expense of hybrids.

The latest “Perspective” report analyzed sales data to see electric vehicles gaining a greater share of the green vehicle market. The report concludes that more plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle drivers are beginning to turn in their vehicles for newer plug-in hybrids or battery electric vehicles. The report notes that hybrids as a percent of all alternative powertrain sales have decreased from 83.2 percent of the market in 2013 to 76.7 percent in 2015 as demand steadily waned. Electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 14.4 percent of all alternative powertrain sales in the last year, which was a 6.3-percentage point increase over 2013.

NADA Used Car Guide sees the trend of hybrids decreasing as a percentage of new vehicles sales tied into gasoline prices staying down and a wide array of new technologies being offered in gas engine vehicles. Vehicles configured with a six-speed transmission, enhancements in variable valve timing and multi-valve engine design, and gasoline direct injection and turbocharging technologies becoming more commonplace are making traditional gas engine vehicles more fuel efficient.

The report appears to be taking a short-term perspective on how sales of hybrids and EVs have performed recently while ignoring forecasts from industry analysts on expectations for long-term sales. Automakers will be introducing several more of these green vehicle models as a key part of their fuel efficiency strategy, and growing interest and expectations from consumers. A report by Michigan-based analyst Alan Baum forecasts that by calendar year 2019, 35 regular hybrid models, 31 plug-in hybrids, and 17 battery electric models are expected to be introduced.

As for used vehicle valuation, the NADA Used Car Guide report notes that weak used car demand and high new vehicle incentives are keeping EV used prices down. In 2015, gasoline-powered models depreciated by an average of roughly 15% to 16% while hybrid model prices fell by 17% to 18%. Used plug-in hybrids fell by an average of 25%, while most all-electric models experienced losses exceeding 30%.

The Tesla Model S continues to show exceptions to that trend. NADA Used Car Guide reports that the Model S has been retaining just over 56% of its original value ― a more than 10-percentage point advantage versus the 45.4% average of competitive gas engine luxury large cars.

NADA Used Car Guide Perspective