Musk Says Most New Cars Autonomous in 10 Years

We’re just 10 years away from most new cars being autonomous, according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

“It will be rare for a car to be produced in 10 years’ time that is not autonomous,” he said.

Autocar reported that he was speaking at the summer meeting of the National Governance Association. That’s the organization representing state-funded school governors and trustees in the UK.

Musk didn’t specify what level of autonomy he meant, with the SAE autonomy scale ranging from zero (no automation) to five (fully autonomous all the time). Tesla’s current Autopilot system falls into level three (hands-off, but requires driver’s attention), so this is possibly the minimum level he is referring to.

SEE ALSO: Transportation Secretary Says Autonomous Vehicle Guidelines Coming Soon

Tesla is aspiring to level four autonomy with the Autopilot 2.0 system, which means hands and eyes-off driving, but the driver may still need to take control if necessary. The hardware for 2.0 is in cars now, but the capability hasn’t been fully unlocked yet.

Progressing from where we are now to most new vehicles being autonomous in just 10 years is an ambitious goal. Most automakers still haven’t set a date for when they expect to sell their own autonomous cars. Ford expects to introduce the cars by 2021, but it has said that cars for personal use would not arrive until several years later. BMW has said that its iNext autonomous car could arrive in 2021 as well, and Volkswagen has said it expects to launch I.D. Pilot mode by 2025.

Regulation will need to catch up as well. Some states currently allow autonomous vehicle testing, but the necessary federal guidelines surrounding autonomous vehicles don’t yet exist.

Autocar

 


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