October 2007 Dashboard

Published November 8, 2007

Hybrid sales in October were up 30 percent compared to last year at this time—once again showing that hybrids can defy the economics of an overall vehicle market that has remained basically flat. Prius sales continue to carry most of the weight. While not as strong as earlier in the year, the number of Priuses added to American roads increased by 50 percent compared to last October.

Sales of the Escape Hybrid and Camry Hybrid also remain strong, posting 25 percent and 35 percent year-over-year increases respectively. The only notable disappointment is the Highlander Hybrid which sold fewer than 600 units. This can be excused considering that the Highlander is in the middle of a model transition.

Gas prices began their current climb in October, which may have had some effect. The prices at the pump have continued to rise in early November. If the price of a barrel of oil break the $100 mark, the real and psychological impact on car buyers could have an even greater impact on hybrid sales from now until the end of the year.

There's little evidence that the loss of tax credits on Toyota hybrids, which have been dwindling since a year ago, had any effect on October numbers. The new EPA fuel economy numbers issued for 2008 model vehicles, while lower than the previous numbers, leave Toyota and Honda hybrids at the top of the pack. Apparently, the mpg advantage—which can reap benefits as soon as the car leaves the dealership—resonate more to consumers than tax credits that have to wait until next year's tax season.

US Sales

Our information is based on hybrid sales as reported by the manufacturers. For each model, this month's sales are shown compared to sales in the previous month and at the same time last year. We also examine hybrid market share by model and manufacturer. The historical sales graph for top-selling hybrid models shows estimated 2007 volumes based on sales-to-date.

Hybrids sold in the U.S. (October 2007): 24,498

Regional Data

Looking Ahead

The tidal wave of green car marketing continues unabated, leaving today's car shoppers with a sense that breakthrough technologies—such as plug-in hybrids or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles—are right around the corner. Meanwhile, new hybrid releases fail to deliver revolution or evolution.

The 2008 Highlander Hybrid is bigger and heavier than the previous model—and no more fuel efficient or speedy. The just-released Chevy Malibu Hybrid carries a $1,800 premium over the conventional model, but provides a negligible gain in fuel efficiency of two mpg in the city and highway. And the next hybrid release, the Cadillac Escalade Hybrid, is the very definition of cognitive dissonance.

Announcements about new dedicated hybrid models, electric drives and biofuel power make a promise that apparently will not be honored for at least two or three years. Press releases about these exciting new hybrid and diesel models, mostly coming out of the major auto shows, almost invariably forecast production beginning at "the end of the decade."

In the meantime, gas-electric vehicles actually arriving to dealership showrooms follow hybrid economics, circa 2003—namely, "hybrids don't pay for themselves and don't make sense." It doesn't help that prestigious news organizations, like the Wall Street Journal, perpetuate the bean-counters approach to hybrids. The Oct. 29, 2007 WSJ story, "The Economics of Hybrids," computes a breakeven period for the Toyota Prius at nearly 18 years. Some journalists still don't understand that hybrids are about much more than just dollars and cents.

Until new hybrid offerings which capture the zeitgeist—worry about the environment and energy security, combined with the society's love of high-tech gadgets—the one or two most popular and fuel efficient hybrids will slowly and steadily push the hybrid market ahead. More dramatic increases in hybrid sales numbers are unlikely until "the end of the decade."

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