Less than half of our vehicles will be powered by the good old combustion engine by 2035, according to Navigant Research.
Driven by rising fuel costs and environmental concerns, the global light duty vehicle (LDV) market is changing rapidly through the adoption of vehicles with various levels of drivetrain electrification and vehicles that run entirely on alternative fuels.
Today, the overwhelming majority of LDVs in use are conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles – but hybrid, electric, and alternative fuel vehicles will make up a much greater share of the market in the coming years.
According to Navigant Research, by 2035, less than half of the LDVs in use worldwide will be conventional internal combustion vehicles.
“Automakers, governments, and motorists are all becoming increasingly concerned with fuel economy,” said Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “As a result, the auto industry is transforming rapidly. Engine downsizing and drivetrain electrification through stop-start and hybrid technologies will become the LDV standards by 2020.”
Among the fastest-growing alternative drivetrain technologies is stop-start, said Navigant, which eliminates idling by switching off the engine while the car is not moving. Sales of LDVs with stop-start capability will reach 48.6 million annually by 2020, according to the report, representing nearly half of the overall LDV market.
The report, “Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles”, analyzes the global LDV market in seven segments: stop-start vehicles (SSVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), natural gas vehicles (NGVs), fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and conventional ICE vehicles. Forecasts for the segments fueled by petroleum derivatives (SSVs, HEVs, PHEVs, and ICE vehicles) are broken out by fuel (as well as by region): gasoline or diesel. Global market forecasts for sales and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country, drivetrain, and primary fuel, extend through 2035.