Electrified vehicles will jump to $58 billion in global revenue by the end of the decade as urban areas face more congestion and pollution, according to an ABI Research study.
Global electric vehicle revenue will hit a mark five times its market value in 2015, and that will come through a wide variety of vehicle types. ABI Research is forecasting that electric mobility will rise in use to deal with extreme pollution and congestion in cities coupled with limited transportation options.
“The role of vehicle electrification in urban areas is part of a broader smart mobility model that includes shared vehicles, charging options, and driverless electric vehicle fleets of cars, buses, trams, and light rail,” said Susan Beardslee, senior analyst at ABI Research. “No singular option prevails; in fact, innovative manufacturers are creating ways for them to converge,” she said.
The study notes examples of automakers and suppliers partnering to bring new options to growing urban markets. Automakers such as Ford and BMW are considering electric bikes that could fit and charge inside a car. Tier 1 suppliers such as Continental are designing and manufacturing batteries and engines that can better accommodate small, personal electric vehicles.
China is seeing most of this trend developing as it works hard to make electric vehicles common on its street. Regional vendors like BYD are outselling larger OEMs such as Chevrolet, Nissan, and Tesla. New electric mobility vehicle continue to emerge in China, such as three-wheeled vehicles.
“The U.S. is taking longer to embrace the trend, though, with many residents expressing hesitation to let go of their private, singular vehicles as we move toward a shared, smart mobility transportation model,” Beardslee said.
The ABI study sees imminent EV price drops as a key catalyst for mass adoption in the U.S. Fleets will be purchasing more of these vehicles, too, as they become more economically viable.
“Once the price point of electric vehicles starts to drop, as evident with Tesla’s Model 3 and the forthcoming Chevy Bolt, and manufacturers address range anxiety, we believe that the U.S. market will see a jump in its sales. Over time, we expect greater adoption through fleet purchases including Uber and Lyft,” Beardslee said.
Personal mobility companies VeloMetro and EcoReco are exploring whether shared fleet of vehicles can work, and are featured in the ABI Research study. Both companies are rolling out innovative personal transport vehicles that they plan to pilot with universities and municipalities in the months ahead, Beardslee said.