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Thread: Oil Production
01-17-2005 08:16 PM #1
I just posted this information in "When Hybrids Will be Worth It" but thought it might be good for a new topic.
Scientific American (1996?, 1998?) and National Geographic (2004) have had great articles about the coming peak in world oil production. In 1956 a Shell geologist named Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. It actually peaked in 1970 and has been declining ever since. Using his same methods, though updated with recent technologies, many other experts (12 teams I believe) predict that world oil production will peak between 2004 and 2010. I believe one group predicted 2020.
What that means is all the "cheap" oil will have been pumped out of the ground by then, and it will get progressively more expensive to get the rest out. Kazakhstan, Iraq, Iran and the United Arab Emirates have the "newest" wells and have yet to reach their peak production. Makes you kind of think twice as to why we started the Iraq war. And, if Seymour Hirsch's latest article about plans to invade Iran are true, we will not only spend more money on energy, we'll have to spend a lot more on security too.
Another problem that may be extremely important is that most experts don't believe anymore in the "estimated" oil reserves of the OPEC countries. Many think they are inflated by 40-100% because oil production of OPEC countries is based on how big your reserves are. Thus, many countries have inflated their reserves.
It is always cheaper to save energy by buying efficiency, rather than buying the energy. So, buy the most fuel efficient vehicle you can. As oil prices rise, your payback will be even greater.