Laurie David - Misguided logic?
Created May 16, 2006, at 10:26 am by Anonymous
A lot is being said about what we SHOULD be driving. Not a lot is being said about WHY we drive the vehicles we do.
Read interview:
http://www.hybridcars.com/laurie-david-interview.html
Last I checked, automakers are owned by shareholders who expect profits. Nobody can expect businesses to risk profitability and loss of market share by adopting a small-car (fuel-efficient) portfolio when the customer base doesn't want it.
Automakers sell what consumers want at the highest price they can. Their product portfolio will change only when consumers see a direct benefit. Gasoline is still not pricey enough to warrant this change.
Laurie David is talking about what we SHOULD do. I disagree with her logic. It is impossible to legislate consumer preferences.



5 years ago
Actually, I differ from you.
Whether or not a hybrid car is worth it, that is not the point. When there is a HUGE demand for hybrid cars such as the Prius and the Civic, why would a company like GM not try to build a hybrid themselves?
That's a HUGE profit that is being missed. For a company that relies heavily on SUVs, when gas prices go up, SUV sales drop, and so does GM's already sorrowful profit. And for an investor, that can be a bit speculating.
Even GM's ex-vice president stated that GM "miscalculated" their outlook on hybrids, and stated that any hybrid model would work, as to make sure Toyota does not get any bigger than it already is.
As with all big critics, some information may be overdone/overhyped, but Laurie David is right. But it will take higher gas prices and a final severe drop of SUV and Truck sales (which have already been weaning-the SUV "boom" of the 90's is over) to "slap" the US automakers into realizing that higher gas mileage is key.
5 years ago
Don,
I disagree with your logic too.
There is no HUGE profit in selling hybrid cars. Automakers are investing hundreds of millions of development dollars. It is unlikely they are recovering their investment monies via selling price upcharges at these relatively low volumes (under 200,000pcs per year).
As a shareholder, I want my automaker to squeeze out every last $$$ selling big fat SUV's until the market dries up.
I have no argument that Hybrid technology is good for the environment and that everyone should be driving one. I just can't skip the business model portion of the argument... something that Laurie David is doing.
G.
5 years ago
I don't think the focus of the Laurie David interview was shareholder profits...she's a committed environmentalist, and I admire her integrity and energy. She's been speaking out about fuel efficiency for several years and she was right!
I was happy to buy the first generation Ford Escape hybrid, because it was made in Kentucky by American union workers, AND I could get 32 mpg while driving a nifty SUV. That was back in 2004....and I am now stopped and asked how I like my hybrid car almost everyday. Thank you, Ford. Hope I've sold some more for you-
Fuel efficiency is nothing new....we all drove compact cars in the 70's and 80's (loved my Datsun B210.) The American auto industry's big mistake was not reinvesting in R and D, while the Japanese corporations figured out "what's next." As a stockholder, I not only look for profits, but American companies with foresight- like Apple, Amgen and Google.
5 years ago
As is typical of the folks, like "G," who quote the party line about shareholder value and other fairly meaningless phrases, they simply miss the point. GM says Toyota isn't making a profit on hybrids--Toyota says they are. GM's sales are steadily falling, Toyotas are rising..... I will tend to believe the company who has a proven ability to make money, increase market share and stay in business over the company with no vision, no innovation and no leadership----ahhh, but they do pay exceptionally large bonuses to their executives. That's leadership, by gosh.
You want GM to maximize its profits so that your stock goes up. Which is to say, you want YOUR profits maximized. That's fine. However, why do you, and many others, not get the connection between vehicle mpg, wars for oil, global warming costs, and health care costs.
Let's look at the costs GM (and others) are causing you to spend: The more oil you need (want?) to fill your gas guzzler:
1) the more oil companies have to plunder third world nations for their resources. This makes a lot of people hate Americans--look at NIgeria, Venezuela, Bolivia, and of course the middle east.
2) the more CO2 is put into the atmosphere--causes global warming and related droughts, floods, stronger hurricanes, etc. all major costs in terms of repairs, lost crops, famines, possible disease outbreaks, etc.
3) the more NOx, SOx, and particulate matter put into the atmosphere---health-care costs related to asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lost time from work, school, "ozone action days" (i.e., lost "freedom from being able to go outside and enjoy the fresh air") etc.
4) the more we have to spend through the defense department to protect our nationa interests (spelled: O-I-L). We now spend $9 billion / month in Iraq based on a lie from a president and his henchmen who did NOT listen to all the experts about how to plan and prepare for this war.
Many people try to make business-type arguments to justify GMs (and others') stupidity and lack of vision, and their own for buying a gas guzzler, However, for some reason these same people have tunnel vision and do not look at ALL the related costs. GM may be trying to maximize its profits, but it is MINIMIZING yours! Many people would be smart enough to see this if it weren't for the misinformation being put out by many of these same vision-less companies (oil and auto).
These costs may not be in GMs economic analysis--and one can argue whether or not they should be, but they should be in yours, your state's and your country's.
Me, I drive a hybrid to save money, I invest in auto and oil companies to make money on the dummies who buy gas guzzlers--and also to vote against the board whenever the opportunity arises.
Remember: consumers have the ultimate power--we just need to be smart enough to use it.
(By the way--when was the last time a shareholder got to vote on some important issue on their proxy ballot...? Doesn't happen very often.... So much for being an owner of a company!)
5 years ago
I'd probably make money shorting GM rather than a "buy and hold." Every time gas goes up for an extended period of time, GM's profit goes down. I'd like to see GM's quater results when they come out, especially after weeks of high gas prices.
-That is why I would never invest in the American Auto Companies. You'd think after the 1970's they'd learn, but apparently, they didn't.
5 years ago
I agree. I have sold my auto company stocks--still own the oils though!
5 years ago
I have read the above exchange and it was interesting. Here are some things to consider. First, as a society, we have three driving factors for change in car buying habits:
1) we change because we want to
2) we change because the government mandates it
3) we change because economics forces it
It should be clear that number 1 is best because you have a lot of choices. One of those choices is time frame, which may be the most important.
Number 2 no one ever likes. However, such an approach can save us (i.e., this country & this world) a lot time and money by preventing new, larger problems (if done carefully).
Number 3 is what everyone complains about, yet it appears to be the most effective, due mainly to its ability to inflict lots of pain.
5 years ago
Vince,
Tell me how your hybrid saves you money. Consumer Reports says you won't.
G.
5 years ago
Actually CR retracted their faulty math in their latest issue.
Besides, most people I know who drive Prius's traded in their BMW's or other over-prices luxury/status cars for them so they definitely saved $$$.
5 years ago
This may sound a little convoluted, so please bear with me.
I compared the Prius to the Subaru Legacy (of which I have owned two) the Honda Accord and the Toyota Camry, since they are all considered mid-size mobiles. I work with people who currently own Camries and Accords. Camries have a base price of around $18K to $26K depending on options. Total price can be much higher. Legacy prices are similar, but I am not sure about Accord. The Prius base price is (was) $21.4K when I bought it. Therefore, my reasoning is that there is no premium to buying the Prius since the base Prius has a few more options than the base Camry. However, my comparison is based mostly on interior room. Check out the rear leg room of the above cars, and also Volvo, 3 or 5 series BMWs, etc and you'll find the Prius stacks up very well. Any car provides enough room for the drive and passenger, but many leave no leg room for the rear seat passengers.
Since there is no premium to buying the Prius, the (simple) payback to me is immediate. Obviously the batteries will make a dent in this reasoning, however I am willing to take that chance, especially with Toyota. And the way sales are going, I think I made the right choice. Also, since I have read a lot about peak oil (and have put my investment money there) I knew gasoline prices would keep going up. (I ordered my Prius when gasoline was about $1.50/gallon.) I also had the good fortune to know several Prius (Gen. 2) drivers before I ordered mine, and they were both getting 48-53 mpgs. So, I knew not to trust anyone telling me otherwise. Not everyone has that added benefit. Since I have always kept good gas mileage records for every car I owned, I knew the Camry (33 mpg highway), Legacy (28 mpg) and Accord would probably average out to 30 (26) mpg for me. So, I figured I would be getting the same quality car, the same utility, but better gas mileage, for no significant extra cost.
There are also many other paybacks to consider beyond what I pay for gasoline. By using less gasoline: I reduce demand for oil, I reduce pollution which reduces (the increase in) health care costs, I reduce global warming potential, which reduces (the increase in) global-warming related natural disasters, and I reduce the need for our country to try to forcibly take oil from other countries, and hold our collective noses while we negotiate treaties, business deals, etc. with people who dislike us, and we them. Most people will not see these paybacks in their own home economics, however, they are real and a state, region and especially the country will.
There are some towns in Texas (near the refineries) where 35% of the children have asthma! Think about how much that will cost us for the rest of their lives. What is the cost of the lost freedom these kids (don't) have because they can't run around and play as much as the other kids. And this doesn't even count the adults who now have asthma after moving to that area.
Companies don't care about these benefits since they just get contracts to drill for oil once we take over a country, and the US taxpayer pays for the security....more corporate welfare in my book.
Consumers have the ultimate control; we just need to learn to use it. We can save more energy my reducing demand, than we can find by drilling for it, or stealing it. It is now, and will be even more so in the future, cheaper to save energy than to buy it.
5 years ago
To G,
How my hybrid saves me money...
I replaced my '97 Toyota Rav 4 with a '05 Ford Escape Hybrid. I was averaging 23 mpg in my Rav 4, I now get 32 mpg in my Ford, and the Escape is a larger SUV. Over the life of the car (I drive them to 100,000 miles, or about 7 years) my Rav took 4,348 gallons of gas...my Ford will only need 3,125. At today's gas prices in So Cal. that's a $4,000 savings in gas alone.
My Rav needed oil changes every 3-5000 miles, my Escape needs them every 10,000. At $40 a pop, I'm saving a few hundred more.
I am able to do all my in-town driving on electric power, not polluting with noise or carbon monoxide. That, to me, is priceless.
5 years ago
Joan,
You didn't even mention tax incentives... both federal and local....
5 years ago
Jim,
Wow! You get local tax breaks? I'm from Ohio (please stop laughing, its not my fault) we get nuttin'! We are soooooo backward!
5 years ago
Let me ask the opposite.
How do hybrids make money for automakers?
Add in the component costs (batteries, power inverter).
Amortize the engineering cost over the 3 - 4 year development time.
Divide by annual sales (50,000??).
Show me the (profitable) math.... please.
G.
5 years ago
Profit levels are a very tight secret for auto makers. So we customers have no idea. However, as you've mentioned in a previous post, auto companies need to make a profit. I can't see companies like Toyota and Honda making cars for which they don't expect to make profits. And since Honda and Toyota seem to be increasing market share routinely, they're obviously doing something right.
Maybe Japanese auto makers plan to make profits long term and American companies plan for the quarter. Maybe its because your average Japanese executive makes only about 20-30 times the average employees' salary, not 100-200 as for American companies, so the Japanese companies have more money for R&D. Maybe when Japense marketing survey people took data on what customers wanted, they interpreted it differently than their American counterparts--and got it right with hybrids! Who knows?
American car companies seem to just re-invent, re-organize, and re-structure themselves over and over again whenever they have a problem. Instead of solving it. This is just financial masturbation. Japanese companies just make high quality cars. Customers bring profits, NOT re-structuring.
I could run GM into the ground for a lot less money than its current CEO!
5 years ago
This just in: another example as to how a company as stupid as GM is raising your costs--just so it can help already-wealthy people buy gas guzzlers, pollute your air, increase your health care costs, increase your global warming costs, and increase the costs of gasoline itself by raising demand:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060524/ap_on_re_us/gm_gas_rebate_4
They (GM) and the country would be much better off if they gave that money to their R&D engineers!
5 years ago
C'mon G-
We don't have time for your numbers games (most of us have lives.) If you want to do your own math, search Google news with Honda or Toyota...and you will see that they are making and investing money in hybrid technology. Here, I'll give you a free one, about Honda opening a plant in America, while GM and Ford are closing 26 plants in America next year. It's been a big story this week-
http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-05-23T105622Z_01_T284300_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTOS-HONDA.xml
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