When Hybrids will be worth it.
Created December 23, 2004, at 10:44 am by Anonymous
When will buying a true HEV be "worth it"? Well, watch you city taxi fleets, when they convert to hybrids, then you will know your time to buy is getting close.
City taxis have the perfect drive cycle to get the biggest advantage from electrically assisted IC engine technologies. They drive 80% of their miles in city stop/go traffic and they drive a lot of miles every year. When the cost of fuel rises and the cost of HEV technology drops to the point that Taxi fleets start going to Hybrids, pay attention.
Some independent Taxi operators have already adopted Prius vehicles in Canada and New York. The big fleet operators are still buying Crown Vics, mini-vans, and Impalas, but they are extremely interested in HEV technology so watch as more and more HEVs come into the market and purchase price premiums begin to drop.
A CNG or propane fueled IC engine hooked to a HEV drive system in a mid-to-full sized sedan would be a taxi fleet operators dream car. Any OEMs listening?
Walt
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i think hybrids are worth buying now, the savings are imediate. it's strange that taxis, delivery couriours, busses & even some police cars are not switching faster to hybrids (most cop cars don't get into chases, and if they do they can radio for others or flight vehicles). maybe as their current inventory wears out they'll switch. it would be silly to dump a newer car just for the technology. wait a few miles & it'll make more sense.
we'll likely see honda & toyota get into those markets 1st. it's already fact with any new product that the 1st to market gets some 80% of the market share. we're talking LOTS of cash so you can bet at least toyota & honda are actively working to secure their share of the cash available!
and it's a world market anymore - not just USA.
see ya
steve
I don't think patrol vehicles should get into the hybrid market just yet. There isn't enough power in a good, fuel efficient hybrid, and although most patrol cars spend most of their time travelling at low speeds, one has to remember that its not necessarily about what they do most of the time. Its about what they might need to do in the future in a pinch. If someone just stole my car, and the nearest patrol car was a hybrid, it would be very discomforting to hear them tell me "Well, I can't really chase him down, but I've called for someone who can!" Thats a bit like being put on hold when calling 911.
Personally, I say let emergency crews drive gas-guzzlers, cause they go real fast!!
As for everyone else, save a dime. Get a hybrid.
I, like Steve, already think that hybrids are worth it. Toyota has proved that if you start with a clean slate and make a new design for new technology, then there is no such thing as a "hybrid premium." I don't understand why Honda and others still look like they are trying to take existing cars and "fit" them with hybrid technology. I think Honda will come around, I hope the others do to.
I also think cab companies would be perfect choices for hybrids. I just don't have confidence in the vision of most cab companies. I know companies like UPS and FedEx are looking into hybrids, especially diesel-electric ones, and currently have a few pre-production test vehicles in their fleets.
There's also the problem of supply. Detroit has told us for years that customers only want more hp, when what they really meant was torque. I believe Toyota, Honda and to some extent Ford, are finding out that there are a lot more of us that would rather save money directly to ourselves through lower operating costs, and to our country through lower health care costs and associated costs of relying on oil.
The benefits of electric technology, with much higher torque possible (i.e., acceleration) and all wheel drive with one motor for each wheel, will eventually work well for emergency vehicles. I think they should be able to burn gas (or diesel) as needed for now, but as the technology gets more well developed, their time will come.
as far as toyota verses honda goes, we're really talking about the merits for example of sailboats verses powerboats. now within "sailboats" we have "toyotas" or we have "hondas". both have their merit. and both beat "powerboats" for economy & pleasure.
as far as releasing a new car designed bottom up the business gets into the picture & i bet honda has a better cash profit position by using their civic as an initial platform then toyota with their new bottom up platform.
i think the idea of using a common car helps rather then release a new styling like toyota which may or may not get accepted as a proper "style" for a car much less hybrid. but in time they should have many to pick from so it isn't important after a while. (only for the copycat Chevy's to decide what to do in a few years).
i don't know where the car people get their idea of what *we* want. i suspect it's via the car show population or readers of Car & Driver ~ point is these are very small percent samplings of the population. i've always wanted some level of economy. but also something big enough for home project trips to the hardware stores. ~ and to tow stuff. and to FIT people...
speed limts are pretty well set, and 65 MPG isn't bad. it beat the old stupid 55... and most any car now a days can hit these speeds easy. recall the old VW's or civics or Datsuns? they couldn't get out of their own way! not anymore with a hybrid assist!
i can't wait to see what's available in 3 years. unlike solar power hybrids are here now & economic now.
see ya
Generally, starting from the ground up for a new design will be more costly in the beginning, but save you a lot down the road. Unfortunately, car manufacturers guard their profit-per-car numbers very carefully. Detroit says Toyota is losing money on each Prius, Toyota says they make a profit on every car. Honda may be in the same boat. They may have a "hybrid premium" because they need it. I don't know who's right, but I do know that Toyota is increasing their market share every year. Honda may be also. I don't think Detroit is.
Styling does sell cars, at least with most people. I, personally, don't really care what a car looks like. I want it to be reliable and cheap to operate. And to have whatever features I want. I don't think I'd buy an ugly car, but that still leaves 90% of them available in my mind. Toyota probably did take a chance with the '04 Prius styling, but it looks like its paying off.
With my driving, I think I'll save $75/month when I finally get my Prius. Like I mentioned in a previous post, I think the economic benefits are already here--not even counting the benefits to the country as a whole through less pollution and less dependency on oil.
I think the one thing that customers need to realize is this: it is always cheaper to buy efficiency, rather than to buy energy. And saving energy is always an immediate benefit to your bottom line.
(By the way, I've read that solar power is already comparable in price to nuclear power--and getting cheaper.)
I agree that Hybrids are "worth it" for some buyers today, but for hybrids to get to significant market share, both the benefits and the costs need to improve.
For over 80% of new car buyers, fuel econony is not in the top 5 of their top 10 decision factors. However, once they buy a vehicle, fuel economy is nearly always in their top 5 complaints or areas that they wish were better with their vehicle.
Most people decide what type of vehicle they want, a pickup or a mini-van or a SUV, and then select based on features and price and personal experiences with major brands. Between brands of a given model, the differences in Fuel Economy are not significant enough to change a buyers selection. For example, Ford/GM/Dodge full sized pickups all get about the same mileage with their gas V8s.
Hybrids will always cost "more" since they have two powertrains; a gas engine and one or more electric motors. There is no "removed" driveline parts to offset the extra costs being added for the motors, inverters (motor drive electrics), the high voltage storage battery, and the extra electronic controls and development costs.
So, the only way Hybrids are going to grow to a large percentage of total sales is if the vehicle performs equally and the extra costs can be recovered in 2-3 years of operation. Rise the cost of fuel or lower the cost of the HEV parts.
Today, true costs, all the extra parts, is well over $5,000, and the fuel savings is mainly in city driving, and performance and towing are compromised. The Honda Accord HEV and the Lexus 400h and Highlander HEV will all address the performance shortfall by keeping the V6 engine. Honda and GM/DCX are planning to improve Highway FE by adding viable displacement engine technology to HEV technology.
However, the net result will be a smaller FE benefit in the city and added costs of nearly another $1000. But, owners will get improved highway FE and equal or better performance in all drivng modes, and retain towing capacity.
Will more buys elect to purchase HEVs? Yes!
Will the OEs all start offering HEVs? Yes, to "Keep up" with competition and avoid lost sales.
Will the OEs make a profit on HEVs? No. The real costs are too great to be offset by the fuel savings. Sales volumes by most OEs will be limitied to the level required to be competitive and meet regulatory requirments. By limiting the volumes, they limit their losses.
Toyota and Honda can afford to give away HEVs. They are growing in total sales volumes and are highly profitable OEs. Ford/GM/DCX will limit volumes. Look for Hyundai to get into HEVs and make them a "bargin" as Hyundai has the most to gain for incremental sales and technology image.
For us buyers, we will win everytime a new HEV hits the market as Toyota and Honda continue to set the standard for HEVs and everyone else plays catch-up in a very expensive sales poker game.
Thanks to California, and 8 or 9 other states now, it looks like all OEs gotta "play" to get to 4% sales for 2007MY. As the OEs get in the HEV game, HEV buyers should be the big winners!
So I agree. Buy them HEVs! It is the right thing to do for yourself and for our air quality and for global warming.
And maybe, just maybe, competition will lead to technology breakthroughs that both lower the costs and improve the fuel savings to the point that the value of a HEV will clear to every new vehicle buyer.
We are not there yet, but keep an eye on them taxi fleets!
FYI Toyota claims to have been making a profit on each Prius sold since 2002.
Priced automatic transmissions lately? They are not cheap. To buy a remanufactured transmission for the Volvo I just traded in on the Escape costs about $3k...very similar in price to the battery pack in my Prius.
I think the economics on hybrids are close to turning the corner. Otherwise manufacturers wouldn't be rolling new product out.
don't forget that product pricing is under the control of the manufacturer ~ nice control for high demand products. our retail price is a very limited indication of the manufacturing cost. something may be manufacterd at a cost of $0.20 and retail-sold at $8 - like energy saver light bulbs...
see ya
steve
I think a hybrid car is worth it.
3 Reasons:
1.It can teach you how to drive more efficiently.
2. One can make a game out of seeing how far a gallon can really go
3. My savings over the last 10 months have paid for my Christmas expenses, which is around $500, the difference between a similarly equipped Civic EX.
Civic EX EPA is 38MPG.
I've averaged 58MPG in my HCH.
I've driven 30K miles.
Fuel saved is about 260 gallons.
Fuel is around $1.80/Gallon Nat'l price.
I've saved around $475 in less than a year's time.
Or look at it this way:
Similarly equipped EX costs about $17K.
My HCH cost about $18.5K.
That's about $1.5K premium paid for my HCH.
Tax incentive should return about $400 of that premium.
My battery warranty extends to 10 years or 150K Miles.
In 5 years I'll reach 150K miles.
If I've saved ~ $500 each year in fuel over a similarly equipped Civic EX I'll have saved about $2,500.
I keep my vehicles for 10 years, so I'll end up with about 300K miles on it.
I expect the battery pack life to end before the 10 years/300K Miles. What will I do then?
Perhaps I'll be able to find a used replacement but in worse case I'll just drive it with reduced MPG.
I think we can expect gas prices to rise over $2 / gallon in the future. How high will it go? $2.50?
Will there be more political trouble in the middle east?
...$3.00 or more?
I'll be in a better transportation position than most.
I'd never claim that hybrids are the best MPG -to-dollar car you can buy.
Better to get an Echo or similar bare bones econo car in that situation.
However if you want the most technological advanced auto to date, potentially fantastic MPG not obtainable with conventional methods, or want to make each and every commute a fun & exciting experience then a hybrid might be for you.
boy you're lucky you don't live in california! we hit $2.50 a gallon last summer, and as recent as just before thanksgiving this year i saw gas at $2.50 and $3 a gallon out in the desert! i bought $5 worth to make sure i got home without a problem... ~ and i HATED paying that price!
expect gas to continue going up more then any thing else!
see ya
I just had a couple of points.
One, hybrids are a small portion of the current market and will continue to be so for the near future. However, keep in mind that in reality, there are only three vehicles that are avialable accross the country currently. So even though hybrids make up less than 1% as more vehicles are offered, the percentage will increase. Also, one could just look at the Prius which is increasing their allotment to 100,000 in 2005 (which I think will sell quickly). This doesn't sound like much in comparision to 17 mill. cars sold yearly (or something along those lines). But, when you compare this 100,000 to the 400,000 Camry's sold yearly (best selling sedan) you get a better comparison.
Two, $5,000 premium is more than I have ever seen for a car to become a hybrid. None of the vehicles are selling for $5,000 more simply because of being a hybrid (often times more features are standard--like leather, etc--see HAH). The cost of making vehicles will go down as technology and volume moves forward, just like any other complicated product.
Three--Performance is not hampered by hybrids, as evidenced by the HAH, Escape Hybrid and the soon to come Lexus and Toyota SUV Hybrid.
I should have added a caveat, I am a 2004 Prius owner and do think hybrids are worth it now.
If you don't want to drive an econobox like the Echo, Geo Metro or something similar and get good or even great mileage.
Of cource, it depends on what is meant by "worth it".
From a standpoint of personal finances only, then the monetary "worth-ness" of a hybrid may be debatable, depending on which hybrid you buy, how much you paid, how long you will keep the car, how many miles you drive, the MPG you achieve, etc.
From a standpoint of "worth-ness" towards the planet, the environment, and the advance of a technology which might ease our unfortunate reliance of foreign oil, then I would contend that hybrids are "worth it" today. I don't mind one bit paying a little bit more money to help our country, and the planet, get itself into a little bit healthier position regarding fossil fuels than is currently the case.
Let's see: paying an extra $1500 in order to cut down on emissions, use less gas, promote a new and hopefully beneficial technology, and to try to keep the US out of more mideast wars? For me, it's worth it, independent of whether I personally recoup any of that cost or not.
Quoting myself: "Of cource, ..."
Of "course", maybe I should have used that money on a good spell checker... :-/
Bob Lutz of GM this week made some comments on HEVs from the OE's view. He said that GM could never make a good business case to invest in HEVs. But, he also said the the "PR" value is priceless and GM now recognizes that they can not ignore the HEV movement. So GM is investing in HEV technology and will be bring HEVs to market.
It is not that HEVs will make profits for GM. It is that selling HEVs will keep GM's image green and keep GM from losing sales to OEs that offer HEVs.
Toyota and Honda are forcing the other OEs to get into HEVs. That's "OK". It is good for our planet, good for us and for our kids. Hybrid technology makes IC engines more efficient; less fuel will be used, less emissions will be created. The competition will bring the cost down and the performance up, and HEVs will be an even better value for future buyers.
It is great how competition, technology, and commercialization are acting in the marketplace to improve our world! Too rare an occurrence!!!
Cost effective HEV technology? Just keep watching those taxi cabs.....
Walt
P.S. That 2005 Honda Accord HEV, what a sweet car!! Excellent design and execution. Can't wait for the Lexus R400h.
i hate doom & gloom predictions, but a short while back i worked for an energy saver light bulb company (the "twister" fluorescent bulb guys). the claim supposedly was that we ~ the world ~ really only have some 25 years more of easily obtainable oil. after that we need to get the next harder stuff out of the ground.
that's not a lot of years to me.
for GM to say there's not a justifiable reason to invest in hybrids means they are only looking at the short term issues.
today i can go to the corner & buy gas.
will i be able to in 25 years?
i'd certainly rather use oil for higher end applications - lubricants, plasitcs, etc; then just burn it up.
small steps get you where ever you want to go.
small steps in the wrong direction got GM into 3rd or 4th place too...
see ya
I read something about GM's stance with respect to hybrid vehicles. I don't agree it, but I do understand their position on a grander scale. It seems that GM, as well as a great many of the American automotive OEM's, are really putting their eggs in the hydrogen fuel cell basket, and thus they see hybrid technology as a stopgap solution to the fossil fuel problem. This is kinda why they have not opted to really develop a "ground up" hybrid engine, but have chosen to modify some of their engines to use hybrid-type components.
I'm sure they see the petroleum fuel problem as easily as the next guy, but they have chosen to invest in hydrogen fuel-cell technology, which is much longer off in the future than hybrid cars.
I'm sure there's plenty of oil for a generation or 2; 25 yrs is probably a bit of an exaggeration (although I'm still getting an Insight within the year). And I'm sure that the big oil companies are in bed with the big automotive manufacturers, and together, they are resisting the "alternative fuel" movement. But I'm also pretty sure that they see the writing on the wall. They do see the end of the fossil fuel era. They just aren't sure what to do yet. I'm guessing that when hybrid vehicles are "a thing of the past" and fuel-cell vehicles are all the rage, GM will be high-on-the-hog, and that's probably what they are planning for.
Unfortunately, companies like Toyota and Honda are taking advantage of technologies that are readily available and marketable today, and that will definitely eat into GM's market. I know I'm a die-hard Camaro driver, always have been, always will be. But this summer, I'm gonna buckle down and get an Insight. American OEM's just don't have what I want anymore. (Discontinue the Camaro? What were they thinking??) And until fuel-cell technology comes to the lay-man, GM probably won't get my business back.
it's nice to hear ~ albiet 2nd hand ~ about GM's plan, but unless they have a very quiet offering up their sleeve they are looking at 7 to 10 years before any fuel cells are released to the car dealers!
that's a lot of lost oportunitie$$$$ by not getting hybrids out there.
and i suspect by then the honda's & toyotas might still provide a hybrid with the new fuel cells.
it's simply handy to use both technologies. even if the electric is a backup.
or maybe by then they might perfect the electric to simply use a steady stead motor to drive an electric generator - then run everything off the electric.
it'd sure be fun to have a true powerplant car in the garage & plug it into my house to dump fuel cell energy into the home energy system.
maybe that's the true future of a hybrid car?
that sure is competition - and cheaper - then solar home electric systems!
see ya
HI All! I am writing from Canada where we have a 50% gas tax. Our prices right now are equivilent to about $3.00 Canadian, or right now, $2.60 of your funny money per gallon. right now I drive an echo but would love to buy a Prius. I think the problem with the hybrids right now is a catch 22. People who can pay big bucks for a vechicle with all the comforts and the technology don't need to worry about gas prices and usually don't care about the environment. But if you drive an economy car the total savings in gas between that and a hybrid is negligable. I would like to see a hybrid compact car or stripped down mid size. A Prius without the features would be nice. Can't wait fir the plug-ins. Seeya!
As I see it, if you are willing to drive a compact vehicle with marginal performance, you can find that now without the premium price of a Hybrid.
If you require room and more performance, going from a vehicle that gets 18 mpg to one that gets 36 mpg, and still meets your needs (like the FEH). makes sense.
I expect payback within 5 years, and relatively low depreciation if I decide to sell it before that time.
If you are going from a vehicle that can achieve 40 mpg to one that may achieve 50 mpg - the payback may never come - especially if you pay over MSRP.
Keeping track of oil and oil prices has been a hobby of mine for a while. I have always been environmentally conscious and have always bought cars (since 1986) based at least partly on fuel economy.
Remember: it is cheaper to save energy, (i.e., through efficiency) than to buy it! That's why I ordered a Prius last August (and was told it will arrive in a few weeks).
Regarding the comment earlier about cheap oil....there are some good articles in Scientific American (1996, 1998?) and in National Geographic (2004?) regarding when world oil production will peak. Many experts predict between 2004 and 2010!!! What that means is: all the "easy" oil will have been pumped out of the ground, and it will get progressively more expensive to get the rest out of the ground. I believe only Iraq, Iran, Kazakhstan and United Arab Emirates have oil wells that have yet to peak in production. (Makes you think twice about why we started the Iraq war.)
The method used to estimate this peak in production was the same one that a Shell geologist used in 1956 to predict that peak US production of oil would happen in 1969. It actually happend in 1970, and has been declining ever since. So, order your highest mileage cars now and tell your friends, things will get very expensive within our lifetimes. Especially when you consider that China, India and Africa all want their share of upward mobility just like we did.
And, if we invade Iran, like some reports are now showing coming out of the Pentagon (see recent articles by Seymour Hirsch, the guy to "outed" the Abu Garaib scandel), we will also have, in addition to high oil prices, even more terrorism to worry about due to our recent stupid foreign policy.
Saving energy is always cheaper.....
sometimes you can spot in the background of movies a gas price sign. it's interesting to see that just 5 years ago we were paying near $1 a gallon and today it's $2 a gallon. i wish i knew where there was a running factual record of our gas prices. the drop in the US dollar value is a component of the increase we've been seeing, along with the increase in demand from contries like china & india who are *growing up* in a sense ~ adding cars to suplement carrying material on horse-ox-elephant.
wait till they discover air conditioning!
expect gas prices to rise faster then your paycheck!
see ya
$1.45 in Atlanta last week. $1.60+ now.
It sounds to me like they are worth it now...
Gas prices spiraling out of control; how many old peat bogs and decomposed dinosaur flora beds can really be left to tap for oil usage? It sounds like denial to me and I do not mean a river in Africa.
With all the writing on the wall, how does a Dodge Magnum make any sort of sense? It sounds like time misspent. Focus on alternative energy sources is necessary now. That way, they are no longer ALTERNATIVE. The sooner that is addressed, the more viable (economically and performance-wise) these automobiles will become. One must walk before they can run and the sooner one learns, the better we are for it.
By the way, I remember theold Datsuns and VWs. They could not get out of their own way for certain! But now they are quick, econmoical and fun to drive. I recall my dad's old VW bug and my mom's VW station wagon. POKEY! I own a '96 Jetta with 140k, and it is a quick responsive, fun to drive machine. It's funny waht 25 years worth of focus becomes...
Worth it? Now? No. Cool? Hell yeah. I'm still waiting for a hybrid compact car under $15 000.
Toyota Echo Hatchback Hybrid anyone?
I hate the current trend. I will NEVER buy a SUV or a truck, hybrid or not.
And I will never put my family in an econobox that is not as safe nor as comfortable as my Escape. If you are willing to compromise that much, why not ride your bike?
"And I will never put my family in an econobox that is not as safe nor as comfortable as my Escape. If you are willing to compromise that much, why not ride your bike?"
Safe? What are you talking about? Echos are pretty safe : http://auto.consumerguide.com/auto/new/reviews/full/index.cfm/id/38249
Have you ever been into an Echo? Their very comfortable. And, they only cost a fraction of your big Ford Escape.
Drive my bike? Sure, I do it all the time when it's an option. Don't you?
My opinion is that most people don't need a big expensive truck or suv. Maybe you don't, maybe you do and that's fine. They want cars that are bigger and more powerfull. For what? The speed limit is the same for everyone. I don't get it. I sure don't need all those horsepowers and very few do...
The final thing after gas prices that made me get on the list to buy an escape hybrid, was this pass Summer Hurricane Season. It brought to light the days of gas shortages and long lines. Four hurricanes, no elec. (no pumping), high prices, 6 hour waits to get 10 gal of fuel for your car and generator! Try this for a month and you will be glad you had a fuel misser. Natual disasters, war, teriorrist bombs and other accidents are reasons to be prepared. You just may need to pack up some important things like your family, cooler, food, clothes, maybe a dog or cat etc. and leave for awhile. Now, do you want to do it in an Escape or Honda? What about driving through flooded roads? The smaller cars don't fare so good!
Do you know how hard it was just to get a generator then? Wake up people, there are so many reasons to buy this SUV Hybrid now it isn't funny. I jumped at the chance to get one. Pay now or pay more later!
Hybrids are worth it now. It's just that no cost is associated with the removal of vehicular CO2 emmissions from the atmosphere.
If these costs were included the sums would be vastly in favour of hybrids.
Eventually the "penny will drop". For example, In Australia a week or so ago, we had 38 deg C in Perth, Western Australia while it was snowing in Victoria. Unheard of in recorded heistory in an Australian summer.
I've just filled my Grand Caravan for $29.00. Gas cost $1.79 at Quicktrip in an Atlanta suburb.
I can go about 300 miles on that $29.00
I also filled up my HCH for $18. It will go about 650 miles.
The cheapest I remember was back mid-60's at eleven or twelve cents per gallon.
"I believe only Iraq, Iran, Kazakhstan and United Arab Emirates have oil wells that have yet to peak in production."
Vince, you forgot to mention Alaska and Canada. They say each of these oil fields are potentially larger than even the Saudis, and Canadian's have recently found out how to cheaply remove the sand. They're working on a Alaska-Canadian-U.S. pipeline.
Personally I don't go for all the end of the world hoo-blah. I just want to see how far my 1$ can get me down the road. I don't have a problem with someone buying a large vehice, just don't try to push me down the road wit it.
Its been a while since I posted to this thread, but like any good thread, it keeps on going. I've been enjoying my new 05 Prius so I haven't taken the time to check here much.
I believe the Canadian tar sands potentially have a lot of oil, 300 billion barrels or so. I think it is also roughly 10 times more expensive to get this oil than from a Saudi or Iraq well. Since oil prices are high, there is a lot of activity in these tar sands. I'm not sure of Alaska.......The environmental costs--not just in losing a "nice place to visit"-- but the real dollar-costs of getting this oil make it un-economical.
The problem with only looking at a small economic system, such as my own personal savings, is that the hidden costs get lost. Burning fuel costs us money: when we buy it, the health care costs related to pollution, the costs due to global-warming-induced weather pattern chages, hurricanes, tornados, crop damage, drought, etc., the costs associated with using our Defense dollars to protect, and fight for oil, the costs in soldiers lives fighting a war for oil, etc. These costs are real, they are just spread out so that we don't see them when we fill up. If you look at a larger system, conservation removes all these costs, and saves you money.
There is no end-of the world hoo-blah going on. Gasoline prices are going up as well as the related costs. Oil production around the world will peak, oil demand is rising exponentially. It is impossible to provide exponentially growing production, production takes time and fewer large oil fields are being found. On the other hand--conservation is immediate.
Hybrids are worth it now for me on the small scale, and definitely worth it for the country as a whole.
Hi, new to the board and just recently purchaed a '05 HCH. I have not seen anyone yet mention the state tax incentives that offset HEV costs. I live in Connecticut and my state jsut passed a law (October 2004) that eliminates sales tax on hybrid vehicles that get more than 40 MPG (EPA est.) including only the HCH, Prius, and Insight through 2008. NOT the escape, accord, or hylander since these don't get >40 MPG. The savings for me was an instant $1,300 off of the price of the car! Couple that with the $500 federal savings and i am nearly covering the cost of the hybrid (assuming ~$2,000 premium). An added bonus of the new CT law is that the sales tax is also exempt fo the purchase of used >40 MGP HEVs through 2008. This means that if i sell my hybrid before 2008 the resale value may hold better (due to the sales tax incentive) and then i can purchase another before the exemption expires. Hopefully other states will follow Connecticut's lead.
i bet hybrids will become commonplace between the current demand and the fact that the extra elements are actually simplistic & don't add much to the cost of a car.
it's easy to think retail prices tell the full story of "cost", but if manufacturers can supply a common engine with a suplemental electric & battery pack to get power they can easily commonize most of the cars in their product line to just one or two engines & one or two electric motors.
with the acord's concept of being able to drop one or two cylinders out of use when not needed the whole package of "hybrid" becomes a very attractive. simple common manufacturing. put a different shell over the car & consumers think it's a different thing! just look at all the SUV's. they are really rooted at a common frame & common engine.
marketing is what drives the price.
you really thing a Lexus is worth the extra $20,000? then you deserve to own one! you're just adding $20,000 to the bottom line of the dealer & manufacturers.
see ya
Can anybody out there help me find some concrete marketing analysis' on the hybrid markets? Without having to fork over cash for the info.
Thanks,
Mike
You could probably find your info at:
http://www.greenhybrid.com
If you are looking at saving money then buying a hybrid is not what you want. You will spend $100.00 per month MORE out of your pocket after figuring gas savings compared to buying a completely loaded ScionXA to the Toyota Prius.
This is not including higher maintaince costs on the hybrid, higher ownership costs and higher insurance (I have the lowest insurance bracket rates and the Prius is $50.00 a month more than the XA.)
Hybrids are not worth it. their increase in milage is only marginal at best (Prius get's 45mpg in reality not what they claim)
If you want to make yourself feel better, buy the hybrid. if you want to save money and get great gas mileage buy the gas mizer. the XA is a great car, is very roomy and can be sporty when you want it to be.
Bill Gates, your blanket statement is not factual.
It depends on how you drive.
For example a person who drives 5 miles to/from work will not see any savings.
However in my case I drive almost 100 miles/day.
My fuel savings over the past two years have either paid the premium or funded our family's trip to Panama, FL last fall.
There are zero additional hybird maintenance costs over a regular car.`We moved our autos from State Farm to Geico and save around $800/yr.
Many Prius owners are averaging upper 50's and into the 60's.
http://www.greenhybrid.com/compare/mileage/toyota-priushsd.html
I've driven my Honda Civic Hybrid 941 miles at 69.2MPG. Most people average 47-48MPG.
Compare that to ScionXA's 32MPG.
(Do a google search for verification)
Why buy a ScionXA when the model xB has a dual market?
http://static.flickr.com/5/6663349_3007f7adf5_m.jpg
When you've finished with it you can pop out the windscreen, remove the engine and sell it to the Amish. Connect a team of horses for near zero emmissions. Win-Win. You might have to get it towed to Pennsylvania though.
Steve,
Anyone who has been around them knows that horses are hardly zero emissions ;-)
Seriously though. I see the economics as an investment in the future when you go with Hybrids, electrics, or even diesels.
Now, when gas is a cheap US$3/gal, it isn't an issue, however, we know that these days of cheap gas aren't going to last forever. By buying the most efficient cars the industry is willing to sell us, we are sending a clear message to the auto industry that we are supporting them in their efforts to reduce fuel consumption (hopefully to zero eventually).
Hybrid technology is in its infancy. It is not a cheap commodity technology like pure Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) technology is, therefore, it comes at a premium price. This is similiar to what ICE vehicles did to those filthy horses around the turn of the century. A favorite cry was "Get a Horse" since the benefit wasn't overwhelmingly obvious. Eventually, however, enough visionaries saw the benefits of the automobile and were willing to pay for them so that now, they are pretty good and we can actually afford them.
It's time to move out of the 1800's now!
By supporting these new technologies in their infancy, you show that you are willing to pay so that our children will know the same wonderful world of affordable transportation that we have. This shows the financial planners that it is worth investing more money in making them even better.
Oh by the way, it is kind of fun sticking it to the oil companies as well - but you need a pure EV in order to do that.
"As I see it, if you are willing to drive a compact vehicle with marginal performance, you can find that now without the premium price of a Hybrid."
That's not true. Discounting VW diesels, you can get a Honda Civic with 140 hp that gets 5.7 l/100 km on the highway. You can get the new Yaris seden with 5.3 l/100 km on the highway; both cars are capable of less than 10 second 0-60 times wich is better than many V8 SUVs. You can get a Mini that's 6.1 l/100 km. You can even get an Audi A4 (non-Quattro) with a 200 hp turbocharged engine with 207 lb-ft of torque, that's rated for 6.2 l/100 km on the highway. A Toyota Matrix is rated for less than 6 l/100 km on the highway; a Corolla is not much worse than a Yaris in fuel consumption. A fully loaded Corolla LE with leather is definitely not a sh!tbox!
There are plenty of compact cars (gas and diesel) on the road that get great mileage, and there are very few cars left that have "marginal performance".
The problem is one of perceived "need". Few people "need" an SUV. The funniest one I've ever heard was "I need an SUV because I have to tow my powerboat on a trailer"...for families that need to carry lots of luggage, there are good station wagons out there (though they are few and far between). For those who need more than 5 seats, most minivans are at least marginally more efficient than an SUV.
Hybrid SUVs? You can't defy the laws of physics. Hybrid or otherwise, an SUV will burn more fuel than is needed to do the job that most families require of it.
Mike you make some good points.
Edmunds lists 17 cars for under $15K:
http://www.edmunds.com/apps/vdpcontainers/do/ViewTypeModels/category=type/attribute=sedan/category2=pricerange/attribute2=under15k
Many base models are around $10,000 and would be a good choice for an excellent dollar-for-mile car, and some are rated mid-30's MPG.
One note however as soon as one begins to add options to the base models the dollar-for-mile benefit quickly shrinks.
I"m sorry you folks never go the chance to drive a real car such as the late EV1 but none of the current hybrids can even come close.
Mike,
I have an HCH and I can assure you that 0-60 in 10 seconds is unrealistic. I haven't had a chance to put a Prius through it's paces. Maybe you're referring to 0-60 kph instead of 0-60 mph? The HCH is a bit better than 0-60 kph in 10 sec.
I'm not sure, however, where you get your fuel economy numbers either. Maybe all the pollution scrubbers on the US versions take huge hits on the mileage. My info shows the following best case US EPA estimates (converted to l/100km for you anglophobes):
Civic Si 7.4
Civic HCH 4.6
Matrix 6.5
Mini 6.5
Audi A4 6.9 (but I hadn't realized its performance ws so good. It's acceleration is almost as good as the EV1 )
Corolla 5.9
EV1 2.4 (well to wheel) :-) <- note the "EV Smile"
I really dislike talking about mileage. All I know is whether it was Georgia (hot) or Alberta (cold), my gas bill is about half of a person commuting with a comparable non-hybrid car.
That has basically meant I have been paying Japanese Engineers instead of my fellow Albertans for a portion of my transportation costs.
And personally I like my Prius aesthetically and functionally better than a Camry or Corolla ... and I didn't want to drive a pickup anymore. So it was a good choice for me.
If anyone is still wondering whether it is worth it to buy a hybrid, consider the following:
Gas prices have risen an average of 20% a year since 2000, and there is no reason whatsoever to assume that this will change. In fact, they may well rise faster - much faster. Today I paid $2.27 a gallon to fill up my Prius. If prices rose only at the current rate, I'll be paying $4.54 a gallon on this date 5 years from now.
I seriously doubt I'll be so lucky.
World oil production is currently flat (has been so for some two years now) and demand from China and India for oil to power their double digit economic growth is skyrocketing. Don't know how many of you have heard of Matt Simmons - he is head of Simmons & Company, International, one of the world's most highly respected independent investment banks, specializing in energy ([url]http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/)[/url].
In an interview with Bloomberg, published just today, here is what Simmons had to say about the future of energy, especially oil:
Simmons says global oil supply has peaked
By Rhonda Schaffler
Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International in Houston, talked yesterday with Bloomberg's Rhonda Schaffler about the need to address energy use, his view that global supply has peaked and the likelihood oil prices could reach as much as $300 a barrel. (Source: Bloomberg)
[Transcription of the first few minutes of the interview]
Q: Tell me how you draw your conclusion that at this point we've hit Peak Oil.
A: If you look at the numbers and you follow what's going on starting with Mexico's giant Cantarell field which is now in a very serious state of decline and then you look at the North Sea and you see just the UK and Norway, it's pretty obvious to me that those three areas alone could actually decline by between 800,000 and 1 million barrels a day in 2007.
That pretty well wipes out almost all the production gains coming onstream and in implicit in that it assumes that everyone else is flat.
So I think basically too many of our oil fields are too old. Too many now are in decline. The Middle East is basically out of capacity. There are some projects that are being worked upon, but most don't hit the market until 2008, 2009 and we're running out of time.
I am firmly of the belief that over the course of the next year or two, this issue of peak oil will replace global warming as an issue that we're all worrying, debating and talking about.
If you're seriously thinking about a hybrid, or even a fuel-efficient smaller car, now is the time. They are soon going to be very hard to come by.
Hybrids were worth buying in the early eighties even though they had never been available on the market. From various web sources, I gained that GMC and Chrysler came up with prototype hybrid vehicles, however, the oil industry lobby dared them to see the daylight. The oil companies would have so much to loose had they allowed hybrid cars to hit the market. It took another 20 years to have hybrid cars on a full assembly line, ready for customers.
While hybrid cars were still trying to make a name for themselves in the United States, Europe already made a step further with the diesel and propane powered cars. Diesel, on one hand, would not be as much environment-friendly as the hybrid car but it is significantly more efficient then any regular fuel car and it producess less emissions; and at the time diesel was also cheaper. Another thing, the main european auto manufacturers such as: Mercedes, VW, Audi, Opel, Fiat, Renault, Citroen, Skoda and many well-known others made diesel cars with high-end options, so you could have a really nice diesel car at a reasonable price.
Propane powered cars came later but were widely popular throughout Europe due to the fact that it cost a fourth of the gasoline price. Plus, the exhaust barely produced any pollutants into the air except for acidy water that would later detoriorate your exhaust system over the years. People became aware of the advantages that propane offered and converted their gasoline powered cars into propane powered ones. In the beginning, the gasoline-to-propane conversion cost was very affordable but then over a period of time it increased but that still did not discourage people to convert.
To summarize, there have been many alternate fuel powered vehicles and they all have proven to be a better choice then gasoline powered vehicles; not only cheaper or more efficient but less costly. I belive that hybrids have been worth buying from the very beginning of their existence. We will all eventually benefit from them in a long run, not to mention our kids and grandkids.
Let`s see. My 2006 Civic EX returned a best of 35 MPG and my 2007 Civic Hybrid has returned a best of 61.51 MPG on the 5 tank of fuel. It`s on track for 65 MPG on this tank. I think with the gas prices as high as they are and almost double the MPG of my previous car. Hybrids are worth it NOW.
I bought my 2006 Civic because I was sceptical of the hybrids last year. Now I wish I had not waited to make this purchase. Beyond the MPG savings is a little free return called less stress while driving. I really enjoy driving the speed limit and waiting at lights with the motor off. It`s very relaxing. This vehicle is a challenge to drive, but not boring if your after great MPG.:cool:
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