Electrified Trucks Will See Sales Grow 10 Times in 10 Years, Study Says

Electrified work trucks, and the incentives that back them, are seeing enough interest to grow 10-fold in sales by 2026, according to a new study.

Fleet operators using medium and heavy-duty trucks are likely to up annual global sales from about 31,000 to around 332,000 in 2026, says a Navigant Research forecast. Electrified vehicles counted in the study include hybrid, plug-in hybrid, all-electric, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Driving forces behind the sizable increase include generous government subsidies, at the local and national levels, for fleets to invest in fuel-efficient technologies and clean fuels. While conventional diesel commercial trucks have become cleaner in the U.S. over the past few years, the added costs of purchasing these diesel trucks have helped reduce the cost of switching over to electric-assisted and all-electric vehicle powertrains, according to the study.

The electric truck segment had seen losses about two-to-three years ago, as a few startup truckmakers filed for bankruptcy or left the market. That trends has been turning around lately.

“New and established suppliers are starting to offer alternative powertrains as well as complete electric vehicles for niche applications,” said David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research.

Alexander also sees the way fleets operate their trucks to work better for electric vehicles than gasoline or diesel trucks.

“Limited daily range and a drive cycle featuring a lot of stopping and starting are applications that benefit most from electric drive capabilities, and delivery and refuse collection vehicles are expected to be the primary targets in the short term,” he said.

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Bus operators had taken the lead over truck fleets in deploying electric vehicles. Navigant sees technology advances and production experience from that segment transferring over well to work trucks.

Growing demand for electric cars has also opened up opportunities for trucks operators. Battery packs are starting to see costs fall, which will be transferring over to electric trucks.

Electrified work trucks will see sizable gains in sales, based on the Navigant analysis. It still won’t play a leading role in sales, making up only about 5 percent of electrified vehicle sales in 2026, according to the forecast.


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