Comments on: Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2010

By: rolinasa

rolinasa — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 07:09:10 +0000

I would love to have an electric car. Until it is available, I’m saving lots of money and putting a whole lot less junk in the air with my Honda Civic GX

By: CharlesC

CharlesC — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 06:35:36 +0000

Gasoline will continue to rise. By 2012, it will be above $5 per gallon and by 2013, it will soar above $8 per gallon. By 2020 it will cost $13 per gallon. America will have new driving habit appear. The top one third will be driving new technology cars( electric). The middle class will complain of the high gasoline prices but will be able to afford it. 1/3rd are poor to lower middle class. These people will start riding scooters, motorcycles, electric quadracycles, electric mopeds, ect.. to keep up with hire prices. Food will increase with gas prices, wages increase with food prices, ect.. What the poor will do, like me( ride a 250cc scooter( gets 70 mpg and does 69 mph), live in a modest home( not real big but not to small) maybe by a electric quadracycle( a 4 wheel electric bicycle) to gather food with, go to doctors, ect.. Still own the car for emergency travel..

By: ha1ku

ha1ku — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 06:47:11 +0000

Whatever happens, I know that right now I cannot afford to take out a loan for a new car irregardless of how much it will reduce my gasoline expenses.

What I can do now is use my bicycle for short trips (less than 10 miles) and telecommute whenever it benefits me and my employer.

Do what you can, with what you have.

By: John K.

John K. — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 16:43:34 +0000

Haven't read the white paper, but re. the 4 points highlighted:

1) True. But if gas spikes, *fear* of gas lines and/or rationing *will* make those who need cars *for their work* (vs commuting to their work), buy a hybrid/PHEV rather than put at risk their jobs/income/livelihoods, esp in this economy. (BTW with the pending Alt-A/Option ARM and sovereign debt crises hitting the fan over the next 2 yrs, we won't be recovering for 2-3 years. JMHO)

2) True. But, IIRC, NiMH batts will be coming off patent in 2015. Hopefully, competing battery manufacturers are breaking ground on new NiMH plants as we speak so that they will significantly drive down NiMH prices ASAP (and offer large format NiMH batts), which will in turn drive down Li ion batt prices somewhat. BTW cheaper NiMH may be used by PHEVs/EVs as their main energy storage unit with a smaller Li ion batt pack providing power.

3) True.

4) True, but see my reply to #2 above.

If/when EEStor releases its ultracap *and* if it lives up to its hype, it will be a game-changer and all bets are off. Predictions #1, 3, and 4 will be wrong and vehicle-to-grid and operating commercial EV charging stations will be viable.

By: ex-EV1 driver

ex-EV1 driver — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 01:29:55 +0000

eddie,
My personal best is 400 miles in a single day with my EV (over mountains in outdoor temperatures exceeding 115 degrees F) that is also my daily driver for an 80 mile per day commute. My EV can charge easily, today with over 200 miles of range in about 3.5 hours.
Better technology is available today. It is a bit more expensive but getting cheaper as it is not in mass production yet.

By: Craig

Craig — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 00:38:21 +0000

I would love to have an electric car. Until it is available, I’m saving lots of money and putting a whole lot less junk in the air with my Honda Civic GX. After the Oklahoma and federal tax credits take care of the incremental $6,900 for the GX when I file my 2009 tax return, I’ll be driving this car for the same investment that I would have spent on a gasoline powered Civic LX and thousands cheaper than a hybrid Civic.

By: eddie

eddie — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 22:17:51 +0000

A lot of interesting comments and opinions, but how many of those who post comments actually drive an all-electric-vehicle on any kind of a regular basis? Having converted a number of vehicles to electric and driven them a lot of miles it becomes apparent most of those who post comments are simply unaware of what an all electric vehicle is about.

Electric vehicles are not limited by range, but by capacity to recharge. If one drives the average miles and can fast charge the vehicle more miles are possible. Personal best is 158 miles in a day on four fast charges.

Newer gasoline powered cars are going all electric with steering, brakes, and other devices that use fluids. Why? So when they do manufacture all-electrric cars they will not use any petrolum based products. What does that tell the oil industry? Spread a lot of propoganda about electric cars.

Have done several news videos and a YouTube video on electric cars. email me for the links if you're interested.

By: ex-EV1 driver

ex-EV1 driver — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 19:07:26 +0000

Carl,
You're right that the battery change in 10 years will be steep. Eventually, the prices will drop but it will always be the most expensive part of the vehicle.
Remember that for a well-designed EV (note the caveat):
- the motor and drivetrain bearings on a well designed EV are pretty trivial
- the brakes will seldom be used (expect 200K miles for normal driving)
- control electronic modules should last the life of the vehicle. Remember, there is no need for high current to drive spark plugs.
- wiring won't be exposed to as much heat and vibration as with an ICE, therefore expect it to last the life of the vehicle
- tires, suspension, lights, and wipers will, of course have similar lives as ICE vehicles.
There will be no maintenance required on the alternator, fuel pump, transmission, engine, pollution controls, fuel system, starter, etc, however.

By: Carl

Carl — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 14:02:33 +0000

Don't worry, there will still be a reason to visit the dealer/mechanic.
EC's have tires, brakes,bearings(wheel,motor,drivetraine),lights,windshield wipers,control modules,wiring,suspension(shocks ball joints etc.) and batteries!

After the first battery changeout, oil changes will be a fond memory.

By: Norman Mattson

Norman Mattson — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 15:46:14 +0000

Re: Prediction 1 – Cost of Ownership
Don’t forget maintenance costs. An electric car should be far less expensive than any vehicle with an internal combustion engine, no matter how efficient or whatever combination of hybrid. No oil, , filters, transmission fluid, coolant and possibly no hydraulics for brakes (brakes are going to be electric too in the near future). All the adjustments and replacemet parts combustion engines require during the course of their operational lives (timing belts, air & fuel filters, oxygen sensors, plugs etc… sound familiar?). How can you beat the shear simplicity of one moving part in an electric motor: the rotor vs hundreds of components in even the simplest internal combustion engine?