A new era of the electrified vehicle will soon be upon us. During this time, it’s critical that enthusiasts, companies, and governments take a cold hard look at the realities of the transition to plug-in hybrids and electric cars. Pike Research, in partnership with HybridCars.com, distilled a year's worth of research into 10 predictions for 2010 and beyond.
Pike Research forecasts that the market for lithium ion batteries for transportation will grow from $875.6 million market in 2010 to nearly $8 billion by 2015. That sounds like a steep curve, but Pike’s forecast for 2015 is about one-quarter of the size predicted by the Department of Energy. “The cost challenge, the price of batteries today, puts a lot of these plug-in vehicles out of reach to consumers,” John Gartner, the study’s primary researcher, told HybridCars.com.
Production of low-emission electric drive vehicles is no longer an interesting sideline for global automakers. It’s becoming the big show. Industry analysts—as well as consumers considering their next purchase—are now wondering which technology holds the most promise: Hybrids or Electric Cars?
In recent months, sky-high mile-per-gallon ratings have been bandied about for some upcoming electric vehicles. Skeptics point out that swapping oil-based gasoline for coal-based electricity just moves pollution around, without reducing it much if at all. Perhaps the best apple-to-apples comparison is provided by the Mini Cooper electric and gasoline stable mates. We do the math.
Global automakers are racing to supply small cheap cars to the Indian market. But producing a quality vehicle at unprecedented low prices point is proving difficult. Problems have plagued Tata's Nano, currently the world's cheapest car at $2,500. Nissan's planned microcar, expected to sell for about $3,000, is due to arrive in 2012, a year later than planned.
With oil prices reaching record levels for the year—and potentially heading higher—the prospects for electricity-powered cars is also on the rise. Deutsche Bank said prices could surge to $100 a barrel in the next two quarters if the US dollar continues to weaken. Rising oil prices alone are not enough to ensure the future of electric cars—but there are clear signs of a massive transition to plug-in hybrids and electric cars.
The first mainstream cars that plug into the electric grid are not expected for another year—but the battle to provide charging and battery services to those early adopters is already heating up. The tension between two companies—General Motors and Better Place—which might provide those services was palpable on Monday during a panel discussion in Palo Alto, Calif., entitled “Electric Cars: Transformational Change or Niche Trend?”
Soaring demand for Volkswagen’s clean diesel Jetta Sportwagen TDI has left VW dealerships unable to keep up with demand. Waiting lists for the $24,000 vehicle—with MPG ratings of 30 city / 42 highway—are as long as 45 days in some Southern California dealerships. “We’re almost selling them off the trucks,” said Tom Wegehaupt, Volkswagen PR specialist, in an interview with HybridCars.com. “As soon as they’re on dealer lots, they’re gone.”
Toyota is in the midst of its worst downturn since the company was founded in 1937—but it’s raising the price of the 2010 Toyota Prius by about $400. This apparent contradiction appears to be part of Toyota's core turnaround strategy: pump up the volume on marketing, and lead with the Prius.
The smash hit IPO of lithium ion battery maker A123 Systems is sending waves of euphoria through the clean tech and plug-in car market. Mass.-based A123 Systems is now worth nearly $2 billion—indicating huge investor confidence in the future of electric cars, plug-in hybrids, and the batteries that make them go. Yet, A123 has yet to make a profit and faces significant hurdles to mass commercial success.
