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While dismal sales are predicted to continue well into 2009, automakers are betting that the way out of this mess lies in green, high-tech offerings.

Hybrid Heatmap

In this month’s version, we show the states where hybrids are the most popular. In other words, the heat map shows the number of hybrids per 1,000 residents—as a way to see if hybrids are only popular in the most populous states.

Analysis of December (and 2009) Sales Numbers

"Top 5 global hybrid markets" based on vehicle registrations CYTD October 2008.

and "Top 5 US hybrid markets" based on vehicle registrations CYTD October 2008.

Auto executives at the 2009 North American International Auto Show in Detroit this week repeatedly expressed relief that 2008 is behind them. In the past 12 months, the industry has lurched from crisis to crisis. In the summer, high gasoline prices choked demand for popular truck and SUV models. Then in the fall, tight credit and a faltering economy kept thousands of buyers out of showrooms. Finally this winter, federal lawmakers publicly scolded leaders of the Detroit Three as they pleaded for financial assistance. Overall, 2008 auto sales ended down 18 percent compared with 2007, with hybrid sales down by 10 percent. Most of the pain came in the fourth quarter, when sales of all vehicles (hybrids included) plummeted by more than a third to levels not seen since the early 1990s.

While dismal sales are predicted to continue well into 2009, automakers are betting that the way out of this mess lies in green, high-tech offerings. Nearly every major automaker showcased new electric-drive vehicles at the Detroit show, including hybrids (Toyota Prius, Honda Insight, and Ford Fusion), plug-in hybrids (Daimler E-Cell Plus, Cadillac Converj, and Chrysler Town & Country EV) and electric vehicles (Toyota FT-EV, Dodge Circuit EV, and Ford Focus EV). Finally, the auto industry seems to be getting the message that there is a market for more than just horsepower, towing capacity, and cup holders: electrification is widely accepted as the next big thing.

But the area to watch in 2009 is not vehicle launches or high-tech concepts: it’s production volumes. Introducing new hybrid and electric vehicle models is fine, but those vehicles will only have a real impact on oil consumption and emissions if they are produced and sold in large volumes.

Consider the relative hybrid “take rates” for three hybrid makers. Honda sold 1.4 million vehicles this year in the US, and roughly 31,500 hybrids—equal to 2.2 percent of the total. Almost 11 percent of the Toyota’s US sales were hybrids.

General Motors, offer an impressive number of hybrid models, but produce them in such small quantities that hybrids amount to an insignificant fraction of the companies’ overall vehicle offerings. If automakers like GM are truly betting their future on hybrids and other electric-drive technologies, they have put surprisingly few chips on the table to-date. Whether this changes in 2009 remains to be seen.

The way to tell will be to look beyond this week’s flashy product announcements and the slick advertising copy that follows. Instead, scrutinize next year’s production numbers, and you’ll be able to tell who is serious about electrification, and who is simply trying to steal momentum from the latest automotive trend.

US Sales

Our information is based on hybrid sales as reported by the manufacturers. For each model, this month’s sales are shown compared to sales in the previous month and at the same time last year. We also examine hybrid market share by model and manufacturer. The historical sales graph for top-selling hybrid models shows estimated 2008 volumes based on sales-to-date.

Hybrids sold in the US (December 2008): 17,697

Regional Data