Conventional Gas-Powered Vehicles To Comprise Fewer Than Half Of Global Car Sales By 2017

According to Navigant Research, over half of all vehicles sold in 2017 will be powered by technologies other than the conventional non-turbo gasoline engine as we know it.

This is not to suggest sophisticated electrified vehicle sales will explode in the next couple years from relatively minor percentages in many major markets, but rather an increase in all sorts of alternatives are increasing, including electrification as just one type.

To develop this forecast, Navigant analyzed the emerging global market for technologies that improve fuel economy, including global market forecasts for light-duty vehicle sales, segmented by powertrain, region, and number of cylinders, through 2025.

According to the researchers, multiple factors, including increasingly strict global standards to limit carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are driving manufacturers to produce more-efficient vehicles. Although the use of alternative fuels and electric power is expected to continue growing, gasoline is anticipated to remain the leading fuel in the coming years, albeit in unconventional vehicles that employ a range of fuel-efficiency technologies, such as smaller engines and turbocharging.

“There is no single technology that will dominate fuel efficiency improvements over the forecast period through 2025,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “The focus, instead, will be on incremental improvements in engines and transmissions, along with weight reduction in as many places as possible.”

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Perhaps the most important innovation, according to the report, is the wide adoption of stop-start vehicles (SSVs), which eliminate idling when the vehicle is stopped and restart the engine when the driver moves from brake to accelerator. Over time, continued the report, the SSV is likely to add functionality to become more of a mild hybrid, with the ability to capture and reuse kinetic energy without the expense of a large battery.

Navigant Research stated it expects sales of gasoline and diesel SSVs to reach 63 million annually by 2025, representing 58 percent of all vehicles sold in that year.

The report, titled “Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies,” analyzes the emerging global market for technologies that improve fuel economy. Navigant added the report examines the consumer demand and regulatory background related to engine technology and lightweight materials for increasing fuel efficiency in vehicles. Global market forecasts for LDV sales, segmented by powertrain, region, and number of cylinders, extend through 2025.

Additional forecasts by region are provided for the volumes and associated revenue of key fuel efficiency systems and materials. The report is said to also examine the approach of the leading vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, and industry players and evaluates how the market for lighter and more efficient vehicle technologies will evolve.

Navigant Research