Imagine: It’s the year 2025, and the global automotive landscape has shifted significantly toward reliance upon “alterative powertrains and alternative fuels.”
This could be true if projections by LMC Automotive, a strategic partner of J.D. Power come to pass.
According to the forecast, 36 percent of an estimated 110 million passenger vehicles sold by then will be powered by something other than a pure gasoline engine.
Top on the list will be HEVs – gas-electric Hybrid Electric Vehicles – at 17.5 percent of the mix.
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) like the Chevy Volt are estimated to round out 5 percent of the total, and alas, all-electric cars like the Nissan Leaf are estimated to be 2.5 percent.
Does that mean Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn who’s estimated it at around 10 percent by 2020 and efforts now underway by maverick marketer Tesla Motors will fizzle some time between now and then?
Actually, no one knows, but this is what the latest educated guess pegs, and while it’s at it, LMC Automotive says worldwide diesels will comprise 10 percent and flex fuel vehicles which run on E85, or blends of ethanol mixtures will make up 6 percent.
So that accounts for around 36 percent, a little more than one-third of the passenger vehicles in 2025.
As for the 64 percent of remaining passenger vehicles sold in 2025 powered by gasoline, these too are expected to feel a squeeze. It’s projected that V8s – now still enjoying a heyday and presently outnumbering hybrids by number of units available and by sales volume – will be down to just 10 percent, said LMC Automotive.
More than half of the gas engines will be four-cylinders and conventional gas engines will also be utilizing all manner of efficiency aids including turbo-charging, direct injection, stop/start systems, and 8-, 9-, and 10-speed transmissions.