Comments on: Branson Report Warns of Peak Oil as Early as 2015

By: Ghana Used Cars

Ghana Used Cars — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 16:01:41 +0000

Appreciate this post. Let me try it out.

By: Prof Baldwin

Prof Baldwin — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 15:51:15 +0000

This is all probably true, but as the price of energy increases, so will the benefits of moving consumer manufacturing closer to home – it will soon work out cheaper to manufacture back in the USA with the higher salaries, rather than pay the expensive shipping costs of moving raw materials around the world and finished products back again (globalisation starts to fail at about $97 a barrel of oil). All manufacturing requires energy, you cannot build anything without energy, nothing is 100% efficient, so where is this extra energy going to come from? My own fear is that we will be running to keep still with regards to oil demand. In fact in one of my own models, I can actually see OECD oil demand accelerating as a result of manufacturing re-localisation, rather than the fall off as predicted, although to be frank it is only one scenario, where investment into alternative energy only trebles over the coming decade.

By: Fred Linn

Fred Linn — Mon, 03 May 2010 16:05:27 +0000

AP--------" The first time I heard this (1978) we were supposed to run out completely by 1985. Oops!"--------------

The cost of a gallon of gasoline is about 10X the amount of the cost of a gallon of gasoline in 1978. Oops.

In 1978, the US produced about 75% of the oil we consumed and imported about 25%. In 2010, we produce about 25%, and import about 75% of the oil we consume. Oops.

AP------" Todd Ochsner brings up a point that few people seem to realize. Petroleum is the raw material to make plastics, rubber components, and many other materials"--------

During WW2, the US built a large plant that produced ethanol from wood logging and millwork waste. The ethanol produced was used to make butadeine, artificial rubber. Look closely at pictures of US forces from WW2. All of the rubber parts, tires, gaskets, everything else used to build all those airplanes, trucks, tanks, ships, jeeps etc.----were made with wood from Wisconsin.

During the later half of WW2, Germany used the Fisher-Tropsch process to produce methanol, ethanol and diesel fuels from wood and coal. They powered everything from submarines to panzer tanks, even jet aircraft and rockets with synthetic fuels.

That was 70 years ago.

Todd Ochsner-------------" When and if the oil runs out, what will we use? Just food for thought..."---------

Biofuels can do anything that petroleum can do.

By: AP

AP — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 02:14:36 +0000

Todd Ochsner brings up a point that few people seem to realize. Petroleum is the raw material to make plastics, rubber components, and many other materials. Burning it, when you could use another heat source, is a missed opportunity to build something from it.

All the more reason to use as much nuclear power as possible for power, then natural gas (which has the least carbon of any fossil fuel), then...

By: Max Reid

Max Reid — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 01:38:47 +0000

Last month Chinese bought 1.6 million vehicles and so this year they may sell around 17 million vehicles.

At this rate, surely the demand will soon hit 90 million b/d and if the OPEC runs out of spare capacity, the oil prices could hit $150 / barrel again.

So even with higher production if it cannot meet demand, we are in trouble. Time to start buying more fuel efficient vehicles.

By: Todd Ochsner

Todd Ochsner — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 01:01:49 +0000

I think that one of the biggest issues not discussed regarding a potential shortage/depletion of oil is that of NON-ENERGY usage of oil. I’m talking about all the products produced from petroleum, ie plastic or other petroleum based items. As far as I understand it, oil is pretty much the main staple in the production of such products. When and if the oil runs out, what will we use? Just food for thought…

By: Dave - Phoenix

Dave - Phoenix — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 19:56:15 +0000

"My point above is that we are continuing to find more reserves"

This is the part about "peak oil" that most get confused on....

Every year we discover "new" oil reserves, but the number of new discoveries each year is declining. Annual "new" oil reserve discoveries "peaked" back in the 1960's, and has been declining eery year since.....

As the "discovered" oil gets used up, it must be replaced by "newly discovered" oil. As the amount of newly discovered oil each year decreases, it eventually leads to a decline in annual production....

By: ex-EV1 driver

ex-EV1 driver — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 03:55:19 +0000

AP,
I can't see any politician being successfull at ever winning an election if he/she has gone on record in support of increasing oil taxes.
I agree with your observations about the folly of CAFE.
The only viable solution I see, then, is to work on doing away with the need for oil for most of our needs. Plug-in vehicles that can run of of any energy source that can be converted to electricity and distributed is a viable approach. That coupled with the outstanding performance that an electric motor can provide (a feature sadly missed in today's hybrids) make plug-ins an outstanding technology, worthy of support.
ps: Lamborghinis are over-priced wimps compared to Tesla plug-ins

By: Joshua

Joshua — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 23:40:04 +0000

According to the Energy Information Administration, almost 70% of oil is used for transportation.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/dem_image_us_cons_sector.htm

Even if you calculate total energy used per sector, transportation is still 28%.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=us_energy_use

The information that I would like is exactly how much is used for personal transportation, how much is used for transporting goods, and how much is for air transportation. Also, there is no mentioned weather the military is included or excluded from these numbers. One source of information that I have seen puts the military at around 2% of energy consumption and agriculture around 4%. I always assumed that these 2 sectors would be using more fuel.

By: Collin Burnell

Collin Burnell — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 22:05:51 +0000

You know the one thing we don’t talk about much is all of the other industries that use Oil and how much of the worlds oil is being used by Transportation and the Energy sectors. I got some info that indicates that the Transportation machines of the world may only use about 12% of the total.