Barclays Report: Oil Demand Will Plummet by 2025 Due to Electric Cars

Thanks to electric vehicle adoption, global oil demand could be reduced to 3.5 million barrels a day by 2025.

This projection was made in a recent Barclays analyst forecast research note. The 3.5 million barrel figure nearly matches Iran’s daily output of 3.8 million barrels a day, a doomsday threat to the third-largest producer of oil in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a group of 12 oil-exporting nations that set petroleum policy and ensure the stability of oil markets for its member countries.

Barclays also notes that if electric vehicle sales account for one-third of the market by 2040, this would equate to nine million barrels a day, or close to 90 percent of Saudi Arabia’s daily output. This number accounts for 10 percent of the daily world oil demand of 96.8 million barrels a day.

The blunted reliance on oil demand will be tested in full force as top automakers and countries move to electrify their lineups and pass strict emissions regulations. One example is China, who recently deployed new emission rules which call for all automakers that manufacture or import 30,000 vehicles annually to ensure a percentage of new models produced are zero or low-emission. This cap-and-trade policy requires that 10 percent of qualified automakers’ output be zero or low emission by 2019 with an increase to 12 percent in 2020.

At the moment, many obstacles remain before electric vehicle adoption comes to fruition. Among them is the frantic push by automakers to secure partnerships in order to accelerate development and share costs, as well as low gasoline prices that have seen a resurgence in SUV sales and the ever-present range anxiety and higher costs associated with specific hybrid models.

CNBC


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