The plug-in will come first and succeed because the (battery) technology will be available earlier and because it makes sense to opinion leaders and early adopters.
You can find the TRU group Inc forecast for electric vehicles in the slide presentation given at the recent lithium supply-demand conference in Santiago, Chile. The link is
http://trugroup.com/Lithium-Market-Conference.html

TRU Group Inc

– Felix Kramer, Founder, The California Cars Initiative

The price of oil is incorrect because the dollar is under deflation. Actually home prices, oil prices, etc. have remained pretty constant. (Look up the definition of the word ‘deflation’.) Red China’s tyrants decided to sequester US money at a 38% greater rate than ever before last July. The fed failed to increase the money supply.

Of course the cheapest way to make cars fuel efficient is to mandate lower coefficients of drag. 60% of the energy of a vehicle is just to move the air out of the way. If the government insisted on lower coefficients of drag for all vehicles, that would enclose the wheel wells, add boat tails and belly pans and end America’s dependence on middle-eastern oil, almost instantly. Of course, the cars would be ‘ugly’.

Main article: Patent encumbrance of large automotive NiMH batteries
“In 1994, General Motors acquired a controlling interest in Ovonics’s battery development and manufacturing, including patents controlling the manufacturing of large nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries. On October 10, 2001, Texaco purchased GM’s share in GM Ovonics, and Chevron completed its acquisition of Texaco six days later. In 2003, Texaco Ovonics Battery Systems was restructured into Cobasys, a 50/50 joint venture between Chevron and Energy Conversion Devices (ECD) Ovonics.[5]
In her book, Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars that Will Recharge America, published in February 2007, Sherry Boschert argues that large-format NiMH batteries are commercially viable but that Cobasys refuses to sell or license them to small companies or individuals. Boschert reveals that Cobasys accepts only very large orders for these batteries. When Boschert conducted her research, major auto makers showed little interest in NiMH batteries. Since no other companies were capable of producing large orders, Cobasys was not manufacturing any NiMH batteries for automotive purposes.[6]
However, in December 2006, Cobasys and General Motors announced that they had signed a contract under which Cobasys provides NiMH batteries for the Saturn Aura hybrid sedan.[7] In March 2007, GM announced that it would use Cobasys NiMH batteries in the 2008 Chevrolet Malibu hybrid as well. Cobasys remains unwilling to produce and sell NiMH batteries in smaller quantities to individuals interested in building or retrofitting their own PHEVs.”

As excepted from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovonic

5.^ Roberson, J. (March 14, 2007) “Supplier Cobasys exploring more hybrid batteries” Detroit Free Press
6.^ Boschert, S. (2007) Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars that Will Recharge America (Gabriola Island, BC: New Society Publishers) ISBN 9780865715714
7.^ Abuelsamid, S. (December 6, 2006) “Cobasys providing NiMH batteries for Saturn Aura hybrid” Autobloggreen.com

So, I wonder if gasoline might actually be cheaper than electricity in a Post-Erhlich Maryland.

1)The true costs of oil are not represented which make the report highly skewed. Oil is highly subsidized so the title is very misleading. They base their report on the pump costs alone. Add in a few wars for oil and the picture would be very different.

2) The costs of ownership do not include service costs which are quite high for ICE vehicles and would be substantially lower for an electric car. Also resale values for an electric car would be higher due to the longevity of electric motors.

3) Cheaper batteries are coming and this report only covers Lithium Ion and at an inflated price. large scale NiMH batteries, as in the EV1 gen2 and RAV4, would be much cheaper if only Cobasis (majority owned by Chevron) would licence the technology. Why not make the cost of batteries a variable in the graphs like the costs of different ICE technologies?

A shoddy report at best, anti-electric propaganda at worst.

There’s not much that one of us can do about the price of gas at the pump, but as a team of American Patriots working together (en masse), we can accomplish much.

See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSQh4zQcThc

Thirty-seven years ago during the 1973 Oil Crisis we developed a liquid fuel conditioner. We call it MPG50. When added to gasoline or diesel fuel, it provides many benefits including a gas mileage boost of 25% to 50% and cutting exhaust pollution up to 90%. It is extremely cost-effective and widespread use of MPG50 can cut American dependence on foreign oil by 35%.

It’s a No-Brainer: Buy a $25 trial bottle of MPG50 and you get a $40 Gasoline Rebate Voucher good at any gas station in North America. So, you make a $15 profit for trying MPG50. And, with $2/gallon gas prices a bottle of MPG50 will save you 50 cents/gallon, and since one bottle treats 160 gallons, you get $80 more in gas or diesel fuel savings.

The MPG50 Affiliate Plan also gives Americans a multi-billion dollar economic stimulus plan which could immediately put millions of Americans to work with no increase to the Federal deficit. As an Affiliate, you can make a good living wage & there is no cost for the business (Simply agree to buy one bottle of MPG50/month to qualify for commissions). See http://MPG50.com

You can not only save, but also earn, big $$$ marketing MPG50 as the price of gasoline & diesel fuel climbs higher & higher.

Affiliate signup: http://ebizac.com/affiliates/register.php?id=2373

God Bless America