A market research company is predicting that the U.S. will reach about 1 million sales of plug-in electrified vehicles (PEVs) each year in the next decade.
This news by Navigant Research forecasting PEV market trends reported both conservative and aggressive estimates, with sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV) categories combined for the analysis. Looking at the U.S. and Canada, the firm divided the data by region, creating a snapshot of states, provinces and metropolitan areas.
Local incentives and fuel costs were named as the primary variables for the researcher’s predications, suggesting a direct link between these and PEV sales.
U.S. Sales Forecast
According to Navigant Research, more than 133,000 PEVs were sold in North America last year. In the U.S., a breakdown of 2014 sales corresponds to 55,357 plug-in hybrid and 63,325 battery electric vehicle sales.
Over the next decade these sales will continue to grow throughout the U.S., says Navigant. The forecast predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as high as 20.9 percent, with moderate estimates closer to 16 percent.
“Overall, the United States is expected to be the largest market throughout the forecast period, with PEV sales in 2024 exceeding 860,000 in the conservative scenario and 1.2 million in the aggressive,” said Navigant.
Dissecting the sales by region, the researchers noted that one third of all PEVs will be sold in California in 2024. This comparatively high proportion, which mirrors the state’s current share of nationwide PEV sales, mostly stems from the state’s stringent zero emission vehicle (ZEV) standards.
About 3 percent of light duty vehicles currently sold in California are PEVs; Navigant Research estimated that in the next decade this will increase to between 15 and 22 percent.
Sales of PEVs in the nine other states that follow California’s emission standards – Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont – will constitute another third of the transactions, marking a significant increase in sales for these regions. The remaining states will make up the rest of annual PEV sales.
“Outside of the ZEV states, PEV sales will grow most quickly in states with large vehicle markets, high PEV incentives, well-developed infrastructure, and a high PEV index,” said Navigant Research. “Hawaii, Washington, and Georgia are the only other states besides the 10 ZEV states expected to have penetration rates comparable to ZEV states at over 7 percent in 2024.”
Canada Sales Forecast
There are far fewer PEV sales in Canada than in the U.S. reason, partly because it takes about a year longer for plug-in electric models to reach Canada.
As the country begins catching up, the researchers predicted sales will increase faster than for the U.S. at rates between 22.8 and 25.7 percent. By 2024, sales within Canada could reach as much as 91,000 PEVs per year.
Navigant Research also analyzed where PEVs will affect utility companies. Just as California is set to experience the largest growth of PEV sales, the researchers also expect that the state’s utility companies will receive the greatest impacts, with large numbers of drivers plugging in to recharge their vehicles.
Specifically, these issues will affect metropolitan areas of California the most, including Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose.
“Utilities serving these areas have been at the forefront of developing advanced demand-side management programs for residential PEV charging and vehicle-grid integration,” the researchers said.
“Utilities and regulatory authorities in emerging PEV markets elsewhere in the United States and Canada will likely follow suit, creating new opportunities for energy aggregators and EVSE service providers.”